Last night, the three-month aluminum LME closed down $24 to 1849. Due to the sharp fall in copper futures, aluminum pressure also fell, and the tail market was boosted by short-covering buying. The price rebounded slightly. Today's local aluminum market remained sluggish. In recent days, stocks continued to fall from the previous period, currently only 14,000 tons, while large plants hold aluminum ingots is not much, in this case local manufacturers reluctant to sell more mentality. Therefore, although Shanghai Aluminum was slightly lower, the morning market price remained at yesterday's price. Today's market trading range is yuan / ton level. Recently, it was reported that the Chinese government will formally suspend the preferential treatment of alumina processing trade on the 22nd of this month. It is reported that the domestic spot alumina price has risen to CIF480/ton, and if this price is calculated, the tax concession will be cancelled. After that, the export cost of the aluminum plant will increase by more than 250 U.S. dollars, and the increase in the cost will definitely hit domestic aluminum plant exports. However, since the aluminum plant can still continue to complete the original export contract within the prescribed time limit, this provides a buffer time for the domestic aluminum market. Therefore, it is expected that there will not be a large increase in aluminum ingots in the country in the short term. The market is expected to enter the end of August, the export orders for processed aluminum will increase, helping to ease the impact of increased supply on the domestic aluminum market. In the long-term, the data shows that the international aluminum ingot supply gap expanded to -332,000 tons in the second quarter. Taking into account factors such as the decrease in China's exports and the continued power cuts and production cuts in Western Europe due to rising power costs, the global supply and demand gap is expected to continue to widen in the second half of the year. The fundamentals will improve and will continue to support the international aluminum prices continue to improve, so if the domestic and international spreads continue to widen at the end of the year, the domestic aluminum ingot exports may show a warming trend.
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