Glass spot market grows steadily

After a continuous surge in the market, the bullish momentum is still in place, and the space for hedging hedges on the September contract is still small. In long-short games, the bulls are temporarily dominant.

With the first peak of demand peaking this year, the impact of the rainy season in the south gradually emerged and the price of glass oscillated. However, according to past market rules, the short-term decline in demand will not change the trend of the next four months. Glass demand growth will continue until November, and glass gains in the coming months will remain optimistic.

The rainy season effect appears, and the period price falls shortly

At the beginning of May, the current price of glass both bottomed out, and in less than a month, the price of the glass rose by more than 10%. However, in June, the current price trend began to diverge, spot gains slowed, and ** began to fall. There are many factors that contribute to the market's weakness. First, the rainy season in East China and South China is coming. The weather is damp and it is not appropriate to store the glass, which will cause the purchase of goods in the distribution channel to slow down. Second, the peaks of the supplementary channels for distribution channels have already passed and the social inventory is at a relatively low level. High level; thirdly, production enterprises begin to raise prices after inventory pressures have slowed down. The recently held conferences of glass production enterprises in North China, South China, and Northeast China all have 10-20 yuan/ton price increase measures, which eliminates the enthusiasm of traders. . However, seasonal factors will not change the overall upward trend in glass prices. After the rainy season, the future price of glass will continue to rise again.

Steady growth in production and sales, and pressure on inventory

At present, the overall supply and demand of the glass market is still at a steady growth stage. The slowdown in inventory pressure has provided support for the increase in glass prices. From January to April this year, China's output of flat glass was 12.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, an acceleration of 5.4 percentage points from the growth rate of the same period of last year. April's monthly output was 3.12 million tons, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year. According to statistics from the Building Materials Information Network, the key linking companies sold 2.55 million tons in April, an increase of 5.61% year-on-year, an increase of 11.34% compared with the previous period, inventory volume fell by 4%, and production and sales ratio was 102.6%, an increase of 11%. According to the statistics of China Glass Information Network, as of June 7th, the domestic production enterprises had an inventory of 1.39 million tons, which fell by nearly 10,000 tons compared to last month. In addition, the social inventories of the circulation channels also decreased. Currently, the overall inventory pressure is not great.

Optimistic demand for future glass market

Since this year, the sales area of ​​commercial housing has maintained a growth rate of around 40%, which has driven housing construction area to bottom out from the end of last year. Currently, the accumulative growth rate of housing construction area is above 17%. In May, the transaction volume of land in 10 typical cities was 22.222 million square meters, an increase of 41.7% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 44.6%. The increase in real estate development area laid a good foundation for future glass demand. In addition, China’s future urbanization will be constructed. World-class urban agglomerations aim to nurture and expand 17 regional urban agglomerations, of which the number of national urban agglomerations will increase by 2 and the national agglomerations will reach 5, which will become a new growth point for future glass demand.

From the average daily price chart of floating white glass in East China in the past three years, it can be seen that the annual high spot price of glass appears from October to November, while the low point appears from February to April, which is in contrast with the spot market of glass. Anastomosis. Every year from October to November is the time when real estate construction is completed and renovated. The demand for glass decoration reaches a peak. From February to April, it is the initial period of suspension of construction of real estate to resumption of work, and the demand is in the off-season. In September 2011, the national average price was between 1564 and 1635 yuan/ton. In September 2012, the national average price was between 1407 and 1452 yuan/ton; in the same period, the average price in eastern China was between 1512 and 1622 yuan/ton and 1409 respectively. Between -1471 yuan / ton, the spot price in September 2010 is as high as 1900-1970 yuan / ton. At present, the production and sales of glass spot market have grown steadily, inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the real estate market demand is optimistic. The author believes that the short-term oscillation of glass prices is a normal correction, and the market outlook can still be seen as high.