Understanding of the Connotation of the Revolution of Energy Production and Consumption
The revolution in energy production and consumption is an important strategic ideology put forward by the Party's 18th National Congress report. It is an important connotation of the construction of ecological civilization and an important means to comprehensively promote resource conservation. The energy production and consumption revolution is a long-term strategic task and represents the direction and trend of energy development in the coming decades. The direction of the energy revolution is to gradually build a modern energy system that includes “multiple energy complementarity, supply and demand interaction, market leadership, and macro-controlâ€.
1. Complementary multi-energy will be an important feature of China's energy supply
In the next few decades, the diversification of energy sources will change the pattern of production and consumption of more than 90% of conventional energy such as coal, petroleum, and hydropower for more than 60 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Clean energy will gain greater development. At the same time, the complementarity, substitution, coupling, and coordination among various types of energy will be increasingly deepened, mainly reflected in:
(1) The mode of energy production and supply will gradually develop from a mode of centralized large-scale production to a combination of “centralized supply and decentralized on-site utilizationâ€, and the scale should be adapted to local conditions. Distributed energy is mainly based on natural gas and renewable energy.
(2) The gradual substitution of clean energy for high-polluting energy such as coal and petroleum. The continuous and large-scale development of intermittent renewable energy requires the coordination and cooperation of traditional energy sources and continuously improves the flexibility and acceptance of energy systems.
(3) In terms of energy carriers, except for a large part of natural gas that can be used for raw materials and terminal consumption, other clean energy sources will necessarily be produced and used with electricity as the main energy carrier, and the proportion of primary energy converted into electricity will increase steadily. In 2012, the proportion of primary energy converted into electrical energy in China reached about 42%, which is about 8 percentage points higher than that in 2000.
(4) The energy production technology revolution is mainly embodied in the field of clean energy technologies. It also includes the integration and coupling of increasingly diverse energy production technologies, such as complementary wind and water, and complementary water and light. Conventional energy conversion and utilization technologies will gradually improve.
(5) The segmentation and barriers of the traditional energy industry will be gradually eliminated, and the comprehensive energy group will become an important development trend for energy companies.
2. Supply and demand interaction will become a new model of energy consumption in China
The energy revolution requires a radical change in the traditional energy industry model, changing every possible way to ensure supply in order to control total energy demand, and changing to the supply side as the leading factor for highly integrated and coordinated supply and demand sides.
(1) The continuous increase in the proportion of intermittent renewable energy sources will bring severe challenges to the traditional energy supply-demand balance model. It is urgently required that the demand side be able to adapt to and respond to supply-side changes and restrictions.
(2) China’s future total energy demand and increase are huge. It also needs to promote the energy revolution on the demand side, reduce the dependence on routes, abandon the supply-demand balance model of opening up the gap to ensure energy demand, and create a new type of consumption that meets the affordability and restrictions of the supply side. The model will give full play to the strategic role of the demand side in balancing supply and demand and reducing energy demand growth.
(3) The increasingly diversified service needs of energy users also require two-way interaction between the supply side and the demand side. Through the demand side response to increase user participation, it is also conducive to the promotion of innovative business models for energy companies, and can also reduce the supply side (including Production and transportation) Unnecessary investments to improve energy system efficiency and supply security.
Interaction between supply and demand needs to be implemented separately from the government level and the user level. Among them, the user-level measures mainly include vigorously supporting the development of distributed energy, allowing the demand side to actively participate in the energy market and the balance between supply and demand, and independently determine energy consumption (including energy conservation), production, storage, and sales transactions in response to changes in market signals and restrictions. .
3. Market-led, macro-control is an important guarantee for the energy revolution
The reform of energy marketization and government energy management is the key to the energy revolution. It maximizes the basic role of the market in allocating resources, continuously reforms production relations that are not suited to the development of productive forces, and jointly promotes the revolution in energy production and consumption.
(1) Energy marketization is an inevitable requirement for the development of economic globalization. Our country will gradually develop into the world’s largest importer of energy, and it will be an important target market for all resource exporting countries. It will inevitably play a more important role in the allocation of global resources in the future. With the continuous improvement of China's overall national strength and national strategic capabilities, it is inevitable that more use of the international market and international operations will be carried out, and traditional ideas for alternative industries such as import must be abandoned.
(2) The reform of energy marketization is an important part of China's market economic system construction. To reform the existing energy management system based on the characteristics of traditional energy sources, gradually shift to a complete market economy system, rely more on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures, and provide safe, stable, reasonably priced and clean economic and social development more effectively. Efficient energy products.
(3) The energy market is an important foundation and prerequisite for realizing the interaction between supply and demand and improving the efficiency and safety of energy systems. Economic leverage is the biggest driving force, which can mobilize the enthusiasm of the demand side to the maximum, participate in the energy market and the balance between supply and demand, and improve energy system efficiency and supply security.
In the future, the most important area for the reform of China's energy marketization is the market-oriented reform of electricity and natural gas with the characteristics of network economy. It is necessary to fully liberalize the field of competition and strengthen government supervision of network operations.
Multi-energy complementarity requires electricity as the core energy carrier
1. The development of the power industry must adapt to the development stage of China
China is still at a stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization. With the continuous development of the depth and breadth of electrification in the areas of production, circulation, and consumption, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will continue to rise, and the growth of electricity consumption will continue for a long period of time. This is China. The modernization process and the objective requirements of constant social progress.
In 2012, China's per capita electricity consumption was about 3,660 kWh, which was equivalent to the level of the developed countries in the 1980s and far below the current level of 7,000 to 8,000 kWh per capita in developed countries. It is predicted that China's electricity demand will reach 7-8 trillion kwh in 2020, which is 1.67-1.91 times that of 2010, which is totally different from the basic stable electricity demand characteristics in developed countries. Developed countries’ development experience shows that after the completion of industrialization and urbanization, energy consumption is expected to reach a stable level, while electricity consumption will continue to increase. Looking into 2050, China’s electricity demand may reach 12 to 15 trillion kWh. Therefore, in the longer historical period in the future, China's power industry will face arduous and heavy construction tasks.
2. The power industry must adapt to and promote the large-scale development and utilization of clean energy and various types of distributed energy development
At the end of 2012, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation, hydropower, nuclear power generation, wind power and solar power generation reached 360 million kilowatts, ranking second in the world. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy sources exceeded 320 million kilowatts, ranking the first in the world. In the coming decades, China’s clean energy will continue to develop rapidly. The development of the power industry must follow the trend.
The development of clean energy has also led to a gradual transformation of the power supply mode into a "centralized and decentralized" model. The power industry is required to access more clean energy, such as gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power bases, on the centralized supply side. On the other hand, more distributed energy sources must be connected to the demand side and distribution network. The system (including distributed generation, demand-side response, energy storage, etc.) will realize the pattern of electricity production, transportation, and consumption that are multi-energy complementary, best use, and adaptable to local conditions.
In the long run, the continuous development of distributed energy will inevitably lead to a new pattern of “buy more and buy more†in the distribution network and the retail side, and require the establishment of a commensurate power market. In addition, the most direct impact of distributed energy on traditional centralized power generation is the competition for power. Taking Germany as an example, the installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 32.64 million kilowatts at the end of 2012, basically distributed generation, with an average capacity of less than 30 kilowatts. The proportion of electricity consumption has reached 4.7%.
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Understanding of the Connotation of the Revolution of Energy Production and Consumption
The revolution in energy production and consumption is an important strategic ideology put forward by the Party's 18th National Congress report. It is an important connotation of the construction of ecological civilization and an important means to comprehensively promote resource conservation. The energy production and consumption revolution is a long-term strategic task and represents the direction and trend of energy development in the coming decades. The direction of the energy revolution is to gradually build a modern energy system that includes “multiple energy complementarity, supply and demand interaction, market leadership, and macro-controlâ€.
1. Complementary multi-energy will be an important feature of China's energy supply
In the next few decades, the diversification of energy sources will change the pattern of production and consumption of more than 90% of conventional energy such as coal, petroleum, and hydropower for more than 60 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Clean energy will gain greater development. At the same time, the complementarity, substitution, coupling, and coordination among various types of energy will be increasingly deepened, mainly reflected in:
(1) The mode of energy production and supply will gradually develop from a mode of centralized large-scale production to a combination of “centralized supply and decentralized on-site utilizationâ€, and the scale should be adapted to local conditions. Distributed energy is mainly based on natural gas and renewable energy.
(2) The gradual substitution of clean energy for high-polluting energy such as coal and petroleum. The continuous and large-scale development of intermittent renewable energy requires the coordination and cooperation of traditional energy sources and continuously improves the flexibility and acceptance of energy systems.
(3) In terms of energy carriers, except for a large part of natural gas that can be used for raw materials and terminal consumption, other clean energy sources will necessarily be produced and used with electricity as the main energy carrier, and the proportion of primary energy converted into electricity will increase steadily. In 2012, the proportion of primary energy converted into electrical energy in China reached about 42%, which is about 8 percentage points higher than that in 2000.
(4) The energy production technology revolution is mainly embodied in the field of clean energy technologies. It also includes the integration and coupling of increasingly diverse energy production technologies, such as complementary wind and water, and complementary water and light. Conventional energy conversion and utilization technologies will gradually improve.
(5) The segmentation and barriers of the traditional energy industry will be gradually eliminated, and the comprehensive energy group will become an important development trend for energy companies.
2. Supply and demand interaction will become a new model of energy consumption in China
The energy revolution requires a radical change in the traditional energy industry model, changing every possible way to ensure supply in order to control total energy demand, and changing to the supply side as the leading factor for highly integrated and coordinated supply and demand sides.
(1) The continuous increase in the proportion of intermittent renewable energy sources will bring severe challenges to the traditional energy supply-demand balance model. It is urgently required that the demand side be able to adapt to and respond to supply-side changes and restrictions.
(2) China’s future total energy demand and increase are huge. It also needs to promote the energy revolution on the demand side, reduce the dependence on routes, abandon the supply-demand balance model of opening up the gap to ensure energy demand, and create a new type of consumption that meets the affordability and restrictions of the supply side. The model will give full play to the strategic role of the demand side in balancing supply and demand and reducing energy demand growth.
(3) The increasingly diversified service needs of energy users also require two-way interaction between the supply side and the demand side. Through the demand side response to increase user participation, it is also conducive to the promotion of innovative business models for energy companies, and can also reduce the supply side (including Production and transportation) Unnecessary investments to improve energy system efficiency and supply security.
Interaction between supply and demand needs to be implemented separately from the government level and the user level. Among them, the user-level measures mainly include vigorously supporting the development of distributed energy, allowing the demand side to actively participate in the energy market and the balance between supply and demand, and independently determine energy consumption (including energy conservation), production, storage, and sales transactions in response to changes in market signals and restrictions. .
3. Market-led, macro-control is an important guarantee for the energy revolution
The reform of energy marketization and government energy management is the key to the energy revolution. It maximizes the basic role of the market in allocating resources, continuously reforms production relations that are not suited to the development of productive forces, and jointly promotes the revolution in energy production and consumption.
(1) Energy marketization is an inevitable requirement for the development of economic globalization. Our country will gradually develop into the world’s largest importer of energy, and it will be an important target market for all resource exporting countries. It will inevitably play a more important role in the allocation of global resources in the future. With the continuous improvement of China's overall national strength and national strategic capabilities, it is inevitable that more use of the international market and international operations will be carried out, and traditional ideas for alternative industries such as import must be abandoned.
(2) The reform of energy marketization is an important part of China's market economic system construction. To reform the existing energy management system based on the characteristics of traditional energy sources, gradually shift to a complete market economy system, rely more on market mechanisms rather than administrative measures, and provide safe, stable, reasonably priced and clean economic and social development more effectively. Efficient energy products.
(3) The energy market is an important foundation and prerequisite for realizing the interaction between supply and demand and improving the efficiency and safety of energy systems. Economic leverage is the biggest driving force, which can mobilize the enthusiasm of the demand side to the maximum, participate in the energy market and the balance between supply and demand, and improve energy system efficiency and supply security.
In the future, the most important area for the reform of China's energy marketization is the market-oriented reform of electricity and natural gas with the characteristics of network economy. It is necessary to fully liberalize the field of competition and strengthen government supervision of network operations.
Multi-energy complementarity requires electricity as the core energy carrier
1. The development of the power industry must adapt to the development stage of China
China is still at a stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization. With the continuous development of the depth and breadth of electrification in the areas of production, circulation, and consumption, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will continue to rise, and the growth of electricity consumption will continue for a long period of time. This is China. The modernization process and the objective requirements of constant social progress.
In 2012, China's per capita electricity consumption was about 3,660 kWh, which was equivalent to the level of the developed countries in the 1980s and far below the current level of 7,000 to 8,000 kWh per capita in developed countries. It is predicted that China's electricity demand will reach 7-8 trillion kwh in 2020, which is 1.67-1.91 times that of 2010, which is totally different from the basic stable electricity demand characteristics in developed countries. Developed countries’ development experience shows that after the completion of industrialization and urbanization, energy consumption is expected to reach a stable level, while electricity consumption will continue to increase. Looking into 2050, China’s electricity demand may reach 12 to 15 trillion kWh. Therefore, in the longer historical period in the future, China's power industry will face arduous and heavy construction tasks.
2. The power industry must adapt to and promote the large-scale development and utilization of clean energy and various types of distributed energy development
At the end of 2012, the installed capacity of natural gas power generation, hydropower, nuclear power generation, wind power and solar power generation reached 360 million kilowatts, ranking second in the world. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy sources exceeded 320 million kilowatts, ranking the first in the world. In the coming decades, China’s clean energy will continue to develop rapidly. The development of the power industry must follow the trend.
The development of clean energy has also led to a gradual transformation of the power supply mode into a "centralized and decentralized" model. The power industry is required to access more clean energy, such as gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power bases, on the centralized supply side. On the other hand, more distributed energy sources must be connected to the demand side and distribution network. The system (including distributed generation, demand-side response, energy storage, etc.) will realize the pattern of electricity production, transportation, and consumption that are multi-energy complementary, best use, and adaptable to local conditions.
In the long run, the continuous development of distributed energy will inevitably lead to a new pattern of “buy more and buy more†in the distribution network and the retail side, and require the establishment of a commensurate power market. In addition, the most direct impact of distributed energy on traditional centralized power generation is the competition for power. Taking Germany as an example, the installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 32.64 million kilowatts at the end of 2012, basically distributed generation, with an average capacity of less than 30 kilowatts. The proportion of electricity consumption has reached 4.7%.
Supply-demand interaction requires the development of intelligent power systems
The energy consumption pattern of supply and demand interaction needs to match the spatial pattern and time distribution of electricity production and consumption, and form an industrial structure, production method and lifestyle that are conducive to resource conservation. The instantaneous completion of power transactions necessarily requires the development of smart power systems.
1. Electric power development must match the spatial and temporal distribution differences in electricity production and consumption
China's power development must be based on the basic national conditions of uneven distribution of primary energy resources and productivity, and meet the needs of large-scale and cross-regional energy deployment. In the future, China's energy production center will continue to move westward and northward. The construction of large-scale coal and electricity bases, hydropower bases, wind power bases and other energy bases requires that the construction of cross-regional transmission corridors be continuously strengthened and that resources be allocated nationwide.
The power demand and supply capacity vary greatly between different time periods, and the power generation costs of various types of power supplies also vary. The ability and cost to provide auxiliary services such as voltage regulation, frequency regulation, and peak adjustment are also different. The US PJM power system operators are The supply curve is an example (see Figure 1). Therefore, the development of electric power must allow the market supply and demand to determine prices and allow prices to guide investment and consumption in order to better match the technical and economic characteristics of different power sources and to match the spatial and temporal distribution differences in production and consumption.
2. Electric power development requires the power demand side to play a greater strategic role
Electric power production must track and meet changes in electric power load at all times. It is a development model that has been formed for more than 100 years since the birth of the electric power industry. For this reason, electric power must be supplied to meet demand, and electric power supply (including power generation and transmission and distribution) must meet the maximum electric power. The requirements of the design and construction of the load. With the continuous development of industrialization, urbanization, and electrification, especially with the popularization of peak-use electrical equipment represented by air conditioners, the maximum power load of the power system continues to increase rapidly, always exceeding the growth rate of power consumption, and the peaks and valleys of the system are constantly changing. expand.
In 2010, the peak-to-valley difference of Shanghai Power Grid reached 10.2 million kilowatts, which was 1.48 times that of 2005, accounting for about 40% of the maximum electricity load. It is expected to increase to 45% by 2015. The peak-to-valley difference of East China Power Grid in 2010 is close to 35 million kilowatts. It was 1.5 times that in 2005 and 2.3 times that in 2000. This is a common phenomenon. Even developed countries have to build a large number of peaking generator sets and corresponding power grid facilities for peak loads. The United States has increased its maximum load by about 15% since 2000, which is about twice the increase in its power supply.
This development model is not conducive to resource conservation and environmental protection. It does not meet the requirements of the construction of ecological civilization and must be fundamentally changed. First of all, as the grid peak-to-valley difference increases year by year, due to the lack of adequate rapid peaking units in China, large-capacity and high-efficiency coal-fired generator units have to participate in the peak adjustment so that the coal consumption and emissions will increase substantially, and the unit performance will not be fully realized. Secondly, the power system supply capacity is designed according to the maximum load, while the maximum duration of the power consumption load is limited, resulting in a low utilization rate of the power supply equipment and systems, especially the power distribution system close to the terminal consumption. Finally, the large-scale development of more and more uncontrollable power supplies (wind power, solar energy, etc.) on the supply side has brought severe challenges to the traditional development model of the power industry. It is urgently needed for the power demand side to adapt to changes and restrictions on the supply side, and to participate. The balance of power and playing a greater strategic role is one of the main focuses of the development of smart power.
3. Intelligent power promotes demand-side energy revolution and realizes supply and demand interaction
The core platform of a smart power system is a smart grid. The concept of smart grid has been proposed for more than 10 years. With the continuous upgrading of information and communication technologies (ICTs), the connotation of smart grids has become increasingly clear and clear. Many smart grid demonstration projects in foreign countries have proved that the demand side can track and respond to supply-side changes and restrictions, save electricity costs, reduce peak loads and load shifts, and foreshadowed the great potential of the smart grid in interactions between supply and demand and the demand-side energy revolution. It will revolutionize the operating mode and business model of the power system. This article briefly introduces the main results of the United States Gridwise Testbed demonstration project (see Table 1), which can be summarized as follows: 1 Power users can participate in the balance between supply and demand, and follow and respond to the limitations of feeder capacity. 2 On average, households save 10% of their electricity bills compared to a year ago. Power users are more willing to choose electricity contracts that respond to electricity prices. 3Demand-side response reduces grid peak load in one year by about 15%; demand-side response and distributed power supply can reduce peak load by 50%.4 Real-time electricity price Users shift air conditioning load to low temperature for pre-cooling or preheating , avoiding high peak load periods. 5 Verification of various smart grid enabling technologies, including Internet-based information and control technologies, smart appliances that respond to electricity prices and frequency signals, and home and building energy automation management systems. Automation technology plays a key role in the demand-side response. The demand side can automatically make decisions based on market information. This is also the main characteristic of the demonstration project that distinguishes it from the traditional time-of-use tariff.
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