Abstract The 2014 edition of the International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) states that monocrystalline silicon wafers will account for around 50% of the crystalline silicon market by 2024. However, Asian PV counterparts have to express different opinions. Due to the linear decline in the non-silicon production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers...
The 2014 edition of the International Photovoltaic Technology Roadmap (ITRPV) states that monocrystalline silicon wafers will account for around 50% of the crystalline silicon market by 2024. However, Asian PV counterparts have to express different opinions. Due to the linear decline in the non-silicon production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafers, monocrystalline silicon wafers will soon challenge the dominance of polysilicon. Longji’s new chairman, Zhong Baoshen, said that the cost of non-silicon for monocrystalline silicon wafers could be reduced to $0.06 per watt in three years. China's solar cell manufacturing still dominates the world, but one thing that cannot be ignored is that China's PV modules are mainly based on low prices. Too much attention to the system cost unit price, so that PV companies have insufficient understanding of the actual power generation cost, that is, the cost of electricity, and how to improve the life of the system and increase the power generation per watt is not profound enough. The solar market is gradually moving eastward, especially in the case of the Japanese market, where the proportion of China’s solar export market is getting higher and higher, this is almost to put low-cost and inefficient component companies on the charcoal fire – due to market subsidies, and Supporting the shift from ground-mounted to rooftop (commercial and residential) requires higher throughput components, and Japanese customers prefer high-efficiency crystalline silicon battery products.
Even in China's ground power plants, which currently have low system construction costs, single crystals are about 2% more expensive than polycrystalline systems. In the cost of higher distributed power plant projects, the cost of single crystal systems and the cost of polycrystalline systems are basically the same. In areas with high construction costs such as Japan and Germany, the cost of single crystal systems is already lower than that of polycrystalline systems. Since monocrystalline silicon cells are more efficient than polycrystalline silicon cells, their cost of electricity is already lower than that of seemingly low-cost polycrystalline silicon cells. Combining the variable cost of photovoltaic systems with the contribution of actual power generation premiums, monocrystalline silicon wafers contribute 0.48 to 0.789 more than polysilicon wafers, which will further exceed the price difference of approximately $0.29 for monocrystalline wafers and polysilicon wafers (2013 data).
At present, the efficiency level of mass production type polycrystalline silicon battery is 17%-17.5%; the industrialization efficiency level of N type single crystal battery is 21%-24%; the industrialization level of domestic P type single crystal battery is 18.7%-19.2%, overseas It is 19.2%-20%. In terms of cost, in 2014 Q1, the conversion efficiency of single crystal modules was 16.6%, and the cost was 0.47 US dollars/watt. It is estimated that the conversion efficiency of single crystal modules in 2017 is 17.7% and the cost is 0.37 US dollars/watt; and the conversion efficiency of Q1 polycrystalline components in 2014 15.7%, cost 0.45 US dollars / watt, the conversion efficiency of polycrystalline components is expected to be 16.5% in 2017, the cost is 0.37 US dollars / watt. By 2017, monocrystalline silicon components will be as cost-effective as polycrystalline components. By then, the so-called low-cost advantage of polysilicon will no longer exist, and the related solar energy manufacturing industry will not be spared.
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