Abstract As a special commodity, oil led a booming bear market in 2014. WTI's latest crude oil price is about 55 US dollars, Brent crude oil price is about 57 US dollars, compared with the June high point are close to the waist, ending the hundred years of oil for several years...
As a special commodity, oil led a booming bear market in 2014. WTI's latest crude oil price is about 55 US dollars, Brent crude oil price is about 57 US dollars, compared with the June high point are close to the waist, ending the era of hundreds of oil prices for several years. From the middle and late November, the oil price plunged and fell to the ruble. As the "oil currency", the exchange rate of the latest exchange of the ruble to the US dollar is 1 US dollar against 58.43 rubles. Defend the ruble! Under the difficulties of internal and external diplomacy, the Russian government adopted a series of measures such as raising interest rates to deal with it. Will low oil prices drag Russia, how long will low oil prices last, and what kind of reform opportunities will be brought to China by low oil prices? How should Russia respond to the crisis? Is it a good time for China to take overseas acquisitions? Focusing on the above issues, Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network held the first issue of “Financial Street Monthly Talk†in Beijing on December 30. Experts attended the fierce battle on the theme of “The Battle of Oil Price Ruble – The Future of Capital under the New Global Structureâ€.
The general conclusion of the experts is that the current supply and demand of oil prices is loose, and the short-term uncertainty is large, and will rise back to a reasonable level in the long run. Low oil prices lasted for about one year, which is conducive to the global economy and a reasonable time for reform. Russia's economic recovery needs to be observed for a long time.
Confrontation, the price of oil is so hard to fall to Russia?
Crude oil prices and rubles once again staged the "Double Bears" on Monday, and New York crude oil futures prices fell 2.05% to $53.61 a barrel, the lowest closing since May 1, 2009. On that day, the ruble fell sharply, with a 9.3% decline in the exchange rate against the US dollar, the biggest intraday decline since December 15.
The crisis caused by oil prices has not yet ended, will the Russian economy collapse? In response to this hot spot, at the first issue of the “Financial Street Month†held by the Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network yesterday, the experts at the meeting fought fiercely.
Wang Jinzhao, director and researcher of the Third Research Office of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Research Center, believes that the price of oil has fallen sharply, is more affected by the global supply and demand fundamentals, and has an impact on oil exporting countries, not only Russia. For Russia, due to the deep roots of the country's strength, the price of oil has fallen sharply. Tang Tingchuan, director of the Development Strategy Division of the China Petroleum Policy Research Office, also believes that Russia, as a powerful nation, will not easily fall.
Relative to the optimistic judgment, Wu Qing, deputy director and researcher of the Bank Research Office of the Institute of Finance of the National Research Center, tends to be “pessimisticâ€.
"I feel that Russia's problems have not yet reached the most serious time." Wu Qing said that with the fall in oil prices, Russia's international balance of payments will also deteriorate, which will lead to changes in inflation and monetary policy.
Optimism: oil prices are hard to hurt Russia's "bone bones"
"The problem of oil prices should be discussed from the perspective of fundamentals. If there is no change in fundamentals, an individual can't play much role." Wang Jinzhao said that from the fundamentals of oil demand, the first change is the United States itself. The output of shale oil has increased significantly, and secondly, the growth of China's oil demand has slowed down.
"I think the above two changes may be the logical starting point for analyzing the global oil price problem. Other factors are triggered on this basis, which can be called disturbance factors in a short period of time, such as the strengthening of the US dollar, international politics, etc." It is difficult to predict the price of oil in the short term, but the impact of low oil prices on Russia may be very limited.
He analyzed that in the long run, Russia should not be regarded as a country tied to oil barrels. Russia has considerable "details" and advantages in science and technology, talents, military industry and nuclear power.
"I really can't shut the door to live, and there is no shortage of food. If I want to change the country of Russia by oil price, I think it is probably impossible," he said.
In the short run, Russia's liquidity, foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves and fiscal position are not exactly the same as in 1998, so the price of oil is so hard to fall to Russia.
In fact, there is a lot of room for Russia's domestic economy to adjust.
"Now there are a few things in Russia that are absolutely competitive, such as engines, fighter jets, nuclear power plants." Wang Jinzhao believes that Russia is still moderately reserved when exporting these things.
"Because these things are not only needed by China, India and Southeast Asian countries also need it." Wang Jinzhao said that on the economic level, the sharp fall in oil prices will definitely affect the Russian economy, but it is unlikely that you want to fight Russia.
"In 1986, the global oil price fell to more than 10 US dollars, and the Soviet Union was quite good for 5 years. Now it is impossible to simply compare Russia with the time. This is what I said will definitely be affected, but it has not reached such a sharp degree. "Wang Jinzhao said.
Tang Tingchuan, director of the Development Strategy Division of the Policy Research Office of CNPC, also held similar views.
"Now the United States is attacking Russia with a comprehensive blow to oil prices. Russia's 50% of its revenue depends on oil prices. It is widely believed that $95 is the tipping point of Russia's budget, and below $95, there will be a deficit." The United States is not only fighting Russia, but also other countries. However, as a powerful nation, Russia will not easily fall down.
Sun Gengwen, chairman of Hengtai Aipu Oil Service Co., even believes that if the oil price collapses to cause difficulties for Russia, it may stimulate the "work efficiency" of the Russian nation, but it will make it "difficult to prosper."
Pessimistic: Russia’s hardship is still behind
"If oil prices remain at medium and low levels, Russian oil companies will certainly have some losses. Because oil production costs are relatively high now, oil companies may reduce production in order to reduce losses. In the long run, after a certain degree, production capacity will be reduced. Zhao Fujun, deputy researcher and deputy researcher of the Foreign Research Department of the National Research Center, said.
He said that one-third of Russia's foreign exchange earnings come from oil companies. Russia's oil extraction and oil processing revenues account for a quarter of Russia's overall tax and customs revenue. "If oil falls to a certain extent, it will have an adverse impact on the Russian economy and accelerate Russia to repair its own industrial chain." Zhao Fujun believes that Russia and China are the top ten trading partners. If oil prices have an impact on the Russian economy, it is inevitable. It has an impact on the Chinese economy.
"I personally feel that I am still pessimistic about the judgment of Russia." Wu Qing's point of view is more direct.
He analyzed that the current price of WTI crude oil is about 55 US dollars / barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil is about 60 US dollars / barrel. If such price levels are maintained for some time, the situation of oil exporting countries will deteriorate.
"The current transaction data is not the same as the futures data. The spot transaction data in the fourth quarter is lagging behind, or it is around $90/barrel. It is executing the previous contract. In the first quarter of 2015, it may be executed in the fourth quarter of 2014. The contract for the third quarter. Even if the current futures trading price remains unchanged, the foreign exchange earnings of oil exporting countries will continue to decline, and the situation in Russia will become worse."
It is also a problem that the Russian economy can quickly issue alternative industries. Some economies are very resilient. For example, in the United States, the 2008 financial crisis suffered 50% of the world's losses, but it recovered quickly. Whether it is an economic crisis or excessive oil prices, the US economy has shown strong responsiveness. The speed and ability of the Chinese economy is much worse than that of the US economy. In Russia, Wu Qing believes that it may not be as good as China.
How long will the price of the two low oil prices last?
Standing at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the international price of falling cliffs has made the world stunned. It is important to know that at the end of last year, international organizations such as OPEC, EIA, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predicted that the price of oil in 2014 would be less than US$80/barrel. However, the final result was from the high of $110/barrel in June to the current level of $55-60/barrel.
How far can low oil prices have been going for half a year? In the first issue of “Financial Street Month†held by Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network yesterday, many experts believe that the possibility of oil prices falling will not be too great, and the duration will not be too long, up to one year. about. The medium-term slow recovery to 80, 90 US dollars / barrel, which is the largest common denominator of economic development in the world.
“Although it has been falling, I personally think that the difficulty of falling oil prices to 50 US dollars is relatively large. The price is too low, and it still has an impact on market supply. Oil is different from other products, some low-grade oil fields, especially It is an oil field like shale oil and shale gas. Even if it maintains low output, it cannot be turned off. After it is turned off, it must be re-drilled and re-invested. It is better to produce slowly, lose production, and continue to move forward. Advance. Therefore, the production of shale oil will not fall for a while, which is also related to the decline in market oil prices," said Tang Tingchuan, director of the Development Strategy Division of the Policy Research Office of China National Petroleum Corporation.
Tang Tingchuan believes that on the fundamentals of the market, oil supply and demand have reached a loose level from the tight balance of the past. However, oil resources are non-renewable, irreplaceable, and the speculative and man-made manipulation of oil as a commodity, which will push up oil prices in the long run. How high can it rise? It is estimated that it should be around 80 to 90 dollars in the middle and high position.
Wang Jinzhao, director of the Third Research Office of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Research Center, also believes that oil prices may be relatively flat in 2015 and will rise in the future. Short-term oil prices are difficult to predict, and the biggest uncertainty is whether oil-producing countries can withstand the test of low oil prices.
He said, "The average cost of shale oil is 60-70 US dollars. When new energy technologies such as solar energy and new energy vehicles have not changed the world structure, they are all driven by government subsidies and cannot replace oil. Next, I personally feel that the future oil price will rebound, will not return to 100, 140 US dollars is not good, but it is possible to return to the normal cost of shale oil and shale gas, because the demand is in the annual 1 million to 1.2 million barrels of growth."
In fact, before this round of falling cliffs, international oil prices have been running for nearly five years at a high level of $100 a barrel. Following the cyclical fluctuations in oil prices, the long run is 10 years, the short is 5 years, and the trough is 3-5 years. Sun Gengwen, chairman of Hengtai Aipu, also believes that the oil price callback will take about a year, and then return to 80-90 US dollars / barrel, which is the greatest common denominator that the world's economic development can accept.
Oil has a financial property of self-reinforcing price, that is, rapid rise or rapid decline. The medium and long-term oil price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, and the short-term large fluctuations are caused by speculative factors in the financial market. This is the opinion expressed by Pan Xihong, deputy general manager of China National Petroleum Asset Management Co., Ltd. "In order to make a profit in the financial market, this round of rapid decline will inevitably bring about a mid-range rebound. However, if the medium and long-term supply exceeds demand, oil prices will never rebound to the previous high level. I estimate that it will rebound to the second half of 2015. 65-85 interval (using a multi-system to make a profit)."
What opportunities does China's three low oil prices bring to China?
What is the impact of the falling oil price on China? Experts believe that China should seize the favorable opportunity of low oil prices to speed up relevant reforms.
Low oil prices have advantages and disadvantages for China
Experts generally believe that oil prices will remain low in the future, and low oil prices have advantages and disadvantages for the Chinese economy.
The advantage of low oil prices for China is that it reduces the development cost of the Chinese economy. Since the fourth quarter of 2013, China has become the world's largest oil importer, and the low oil price can directly reduce China's import costs. At the micro level, the transportation costs of each household have been reduced on the ground.
At present, the number of private cars in China exceeds 100 million, and self-driving travel has become a part of modern lifestyle.
“According to our research, the average annual transportation cost per family can reach 2,000 yuan.†Tang Tingchuan, director of the Development Strategy Division of China National Petroleum Corporation's Policy Research Office, said.
The negative impact of low oil prices on the Chinese economy is to influence energy conservation and emission reduction. First of all, because there is an alternative between oil and new energy and clean energy, oil prices fall to a certain extent, and it will certainly have a certain crowding out effect on the new energy industry. Second, low oil prices will contribute to the development of high-energy-consuming industries, which in turn will lead to increased environmental pollution.
"Therefore, the government must come forward to support and intervene separately." Zhao Fujun, deputy director of the Foreign Economic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes this.
Use tax instruments to promote energy conservation and emission reduction
Zhao Fujun said that the Ministry of Finance has increased the refined oil consumption tax based on changes in oil prices. This measure can cope with the adverse impact of low oil prices on energy conservation and emission reduction, and promote China's economy to a healthy and sustainable growth model.
On November 29th, China adjusted the consumption tax on some products such as refined oil. Among them, the tax on gasoline consumption tax increased by 0.12 yuan/liter; the diesel consumption tax increased by 0.14 yuan/liter. This is the first adjustment of refined oil consumption tax since the reform of refined oil tax in 2009.
On December 13, the gasoline consumption tax was increased by 0.28 yuan / liter, and the diesel consumption tax increased by 0.16 yuan / liter.
From a global perspective, China is not the only country that raises the consumption tax on refined oil products. Since 2012, Russia, Australia, New Zealand, France and other countries have increased their refined oil consumption tax. Reducing energy consumption and achieving green development is undoubtedly the common intention of all countries and regions.
Zhao Fujun believes that consumption tax is an important taxation tool for the state to guide production and consumption, promote energy conservation and environmental protection, and regulate income distribution. In the future, it should continue to adjust the oil consumption tax according to changes in international oil prices.
Zhao Fujun also said that in order to support energy conservation and emission reduction, it is necessary to quickly introduce taxes such as environmental taxes. The recent decline in international oil prices has provided a more suitable opportunity for reforms, facilitating a smooth transition.
Wang Jinzhao, a researcher at the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also recognized the idea of ​​tax adjustment.
He believes that "in the context of the increasingly contradictory resources and environment in China and the increasingly difficult task of pollution control, it is reasonable to curb the excessive growth of refined oil consumption by raising the consumption tax."
Wang Jinzhao also suggested that "when the consumption tax rises, can we make some corresponding adjustments to other taxes, such as personal income tax and corporate income tax can be lowered a little. Let the overall tax burden of the Chinese economy not increase, I think this reform is to be matched. ""
How should the confrontation of the four Russias respond to the crisis?
The once-avalanche-like ruble crisis was officially declared dead, but experts believe that it may not stand the test.
At the first issue of “Financial Street Month†held by Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network yesterday, Wu Qing, deputy director of the Bank Research Office of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that oil and ruble are obviously positively related, Russia should Measures such as foreign exchange controls were implemented to stabilize the ruble.
In the financial world, the ruble is considered to be an oil currency, because about one-third of Russia's industries are related to oil, and the economy is over-reliant on oil. The oil and ruble trend is obviously positively correlated. New York crude oil futures prices fell 2.05% to $53.61 a barrel on Monday, the lowest closing price since May 1, 2009. On that day, the ruble fell sharply, and the Russian ruble fell by 9.3% against the US dollar. In the past 20 years, the ruble exchange rate has been quite strong, because the oil price is firm.
At present, WTI crude oil price is about 55 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil price is about 60 US dollars / barrel, and there are still many uncertainties in future oil price trends.
"If the current price level is maintained for some time, the situation of oil exporting countries will still deteriorate." Wu Qing believes that Russia has not reached the most serious time, because the current spot transaction data and futures data are not synchronized, the transaction price in the third quarter is still At around $90/barrel, the change is lagging behind, and Russia’s balance of payments is expected to deteriorate in the future.
On December 25th, the Russian official announced that the ruble crisis has ended. In this regard, Wu Qing believes that the purpose of Russia's statement this time may be to input some confidence into the market, but this confidence can not withstand the test of time.
Regarding how Russia should respond to the ruble crisis, Wu Qing believes that China can learn from China's response to the US quantitative easing exit.
The withdrawal of the Fed from quantitative easing will bring shocks to many countries. An important manifestation of the impact on China is to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate. "The renminbi and the US dollar are hung together. When the US dollar appreciates, the renminbi may not be able to hang. If it must be hung up, it will experience the difficulty of foreign exchange outflow, which is the difficulty that Russia is now experiencing. We are likely to encounter it. Wu Qing said that in 2014 China maintained the stability of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate, but expanded the exchange rate fluctuation range. This strategy is worth learning from Russia.
Other plans also apply to Russia, such as foreign exchange controls.
In the face of the sharp depreciation of the ruble, Russia once refused foreign exchange control, preferring to raise interest rates to maintain the stability of the exchange rate, but high interest rates hurt the real economy. This week, substantial foreign exchange controls began.
"Russia now requires state-owned enterprises to sell foreign exchange, which is actually an intervention in cross-border transactions. If this means is taken earlier, it will be better."
Was the confrontation of five oil companies overseas?
The international oil price plummeted, is a disaster for Chinese oil companies, or a rare opportunity for overseas mergers and acquisitions? For a time, all sides of the public opinion have different opinions, and there is no consensus. The mainstream view is that now is a good opportunity for Chinese oil companies to bargain overseas.
On December 30, Sun Gengwen, Chairman of Hengtai Aip Oil & Gas Technology Services Co., Ltd., stated in the first issue of “Financial Street Monthly Talk†held by Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Network. For emerging developing countries, Any drop in oil prices is a rare strategic opportunity, and this is exactly the time to buy resources abroad.
"At this time, I will not take the shot. It is very likely that there will be no chance in two years!" Sun Gengwen said frankly that at present, if China can follow the path of reform and opening up in the new era and guide enterprises to take resources abroad, this will not only improve the national oil and gas strategy, but also Oil service companies can be integrated into Halliburton and Baker Hughes in China.
A month ago, Halliburton, the world's second-largest oil service company, and Baker Hughes, the world's third-largest oil service company, announced a marriage and reached the top of the global oil service. The acquisition cost $34.8 billion, allowing the world to once again witness the magical power of the capital market.
Unexpectedly, the price of oil has plummeted. For Chinese oil companies, is it negative for production or standby? The mainstream view is that we should also take the responsibility to form a strategy for China's oil service enterprises and take back overseas oil and gas resources, which will play a major role in promoting the national economy.
Liu Gan, an assistant researcher at the China Energy Strategy Institute of China University of Petroleum, said that in the process of finding rebalancing of international oil prices, international oil companies and oil service companies are adjusting their strategies and actively looking for Russia, Central Asia, Africa, the Middle East and North America. The possibility of a new deal in South America.
Sun Gengwen also holds a similar view. He believes that at present, seizing opportunities is more beneficial than spending time in opportunities, and it can provide strong support for our deepening reforms. Because, in the state of rapid economic development, the economic cost of high oil prices is very high.
In the aspect of acquiring overseas oil companies, the Chinese securities market has a lot to offer. Sun Gengwen said that it is a good period of strategic opportunity to use foreign currency to acquire and acquire assets in the form of currency and equity. "Why can't we bring foreigners' assets in and let them take our stock?"
In fact, the current round of oil price plunging and the rule of oil price decline in history are basically the same, the so-called "cyclical", and the oil price recovery time takes about one year, and the future will return to 80 to 90 dollars. It is also the largest common denominator acceptable to economic development in all countries of the world.
"The fall in oil prices will allow us to reduce the "throttle" of development, and think deeply about how our deepening reforms have gone better, and what kind of development will be built for the next 10, 20, or even 30 years of development. The foundation of health, this is the period of strategic opportunity.†Sun Gengwen believes that we have to think about three questions at this time: What is its impact? Is it an opportunity for us? What can we do in this opportunity?
China is a country with a lack of resources. This period is just the most suitable period for acquiring resources abroad. Sun Gengwen suggested that under the guidance of relevant state policies, enterprises should have planned, organized, and premeditated access to resources in some countries to improve and healthy China's energy-based role.
"In terms of opportunities, our country is deepening reforms. To solve the problem of taxation and integration, it is the period of opportunity. Now, it is also the best period for restructuring." Sun Gengwen Said.
The Peristaltic Pump can be used in liposuction surgery, in the process of swelling anesthesia, used to deliver saline.
The definition of swollen anesthesia is to infiltrate into subcutaneous adipose tissue by ultra-low concentration, high-dose, a large-volume local anesthetic (currently used lidocaine) as an anesthetic method for liposuction.
Swelling anesthesia was first proposed by Klein in 1987. It is also called [over-perfusion anesthesia". A large amount of solution containing adrenal and lidocaine is stably perfused into the skin through a peristaltic pump, causing edema and cell tissue gap in the subcutaneous tissue and its structure. The small blood vessels are separated and pressed to be locked, thereby achieving the effects of local anesthesia, pain relief, hemostasis, and tissue separation.
Swollen anesthesia can be used as separate local anesthesia or combined with general anesthesia or regional anesthesia.
The advantage of peristaltic pump in swelling anesthesia:
1, easy operated, non-contamination
2, foot pedal control ,safety & reliability
3, adjustable speed and left/right direction optional
4, Power-down memory function
Peristaltic Saline Pump,Liquid Peristaltic Infusion Pump,Liposuction Peristaltic Pump,Medical Treatment Peristaltic Pump
Baoding Chuangrui Precision Pump Co., Ltd. , https://www.crperistalticpump.com