Abstract Although the domestic PV application market is in full swing, it still cannot offset the negative impact of Europe and the United States on China's "double opposition." After all, according to the statistics of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, 2...
Although the domestic PV application market is in full swing, it still cannot offset the negative impact of Europe and the United States on China's "double opposition." After all, according to the statistics of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, in the whole year of 2014, Europe and the United States together accounted for 30% of China's PV exports. Just a few days ago, the European Photovoltaic Manufacturers Association (EU ProSun), the initiator of the European Union's "double-reverse" to China's photovoltaic industry, once again submitted a complaint to the European Commission. This time, it accused Chinese PV companies of going through third places such as Malaysia and selling their products to Europe to avoid tariffs.
The industry speculates that the original intention of the EU ProSun complaint is mainly to: provoke the EU to conduct "anti-circumvention investigation" on crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and key components originating in China; and the deeper level of intention may be to " The relevant material obtained from the anti-circumvention investigation is an excuse for the European Commission to make a decision to extend the “price commitments that should have expired in December 2015 in Central Europeâ€.
Relevant legal persons told the "Securities Daily" reporter that before the expiration of the "price commitment" in Central Europe, the European Commission will review the implementation (also known as "sunset review"), thereby determining whether the "price commitment" is It is extended or revoked. However, in the “anti-circumvention investigationâ€, if there is a violation of the “price commitment†and the evasion of tariffs exists, the main body of the implementation will be removed from the list of enterprises that implement the “price commitment†and will be subject to heavy taxes.
Today, EU ProSun's above approach has been successful. On May 5, at the request of EU ProSun, the EU decided to conduct an “anti-circumvention investigation†on crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules and key components originating in China.
This also means that the “trade fairness†that the Chinese government and the photovoltaic industry are trying to maintain is once again facing “provocationâ€.
Polysilicon restricts EU PV "double anti"
If the implementation period of the “Price Commitment†of CEIBS is extended after the “Sunset Reviewâ€, what impact will it have on China's PV?
As early as August 2013, China and the EU reached a “price commitment†for China’s export of crystalline silicon photovoltaic products to Europe. Although the official has not yet disclosed the specific content of price commitments (prices, quotas, etc.), in fact, the industry recognizes that “ In the price commitment, "the lower price limit of China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic products exported to Europe will be set at 0.57 euros / watt.
This is almost the only "disputation point" in the "price commitment" at that time. The industry is worried that the restrictive policy will be released from 2013 to 2015, and will gradually release China's photovoltaics, especially polysilicon, over time. Negative impact of monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic products: If the production cost of photovoltaic products is reduced, resulting in lower prices of other competitors' PV products, China's PV products that have to comply with the lower limit of 0.57 Euro/W will gradually lose their competitiveness in the European market.
In other words, if the “price commitment†that has been implemented for three years is extended, it will further weaken the competitiveness of Chinese PV products in the European market.
"In fact, it is no longer meaningful to talk about the flaws in the Sino-European trade dispute. If you want to fight for trade fairness, you must have enough 'chips' in the negotiations." A PV industry reporter to the Securities Daily Frankly, "for example, in the "price commitment" reached with WACKER in Germany (the European polysilicon production capacity is mainly concentrated in Germany and the German polysilicon production capacity is mainly concentrated in WACKER), we should make reciprocal restrictions on the EU PV 'double reverse'. To achieve mutual restraint between China and the EU in the polysilicon and photovoltaic industries."
On January 24, 2014, the Ministry of Commerce of China announced the preliminary results of the anti-dumping investigation on solar-grade polysilicon imported from the EU, and ruled that the imported solar-grade polysilicon originated in the EU was dumped. The Chinese polysilicon industry was seriously damaged, and dumping and damage. There is a causal relationship between them.
At that time, people familiar with the matter disclosed to the "Securities Daily" reporter that "in the preliminary ruling, the EU's largest polysilicon producer - Germany Wacker's ruling anti-dumping tax rate was 21.8%, the countervailing duty rate was 10.7%. A total of 32.5%".
However, in response to the anti-dumping case against China-EU polysilicon, the Ministry of Commerce announced that, considering the special market situation in this case, the investigation authority decided not to implement temporary anti-dumping measures after the preliminary ruling. In this regard, the above-mentioned insiders introduced, "In view of the fact that the previous PV dispute in Central Europe ended with a price commitment, the case may be 'reconciled', that is, China will reach a price commitment with polysilicon on the polysilicon."
Sure enough, on March 14, 2014, WACKER of Germany submitted a price commitment to the China Trade Relief Investigation Agency, the Ministry of Commerce, the Import and Export Fair Trade Bureau. The industry commented on this, China and the EU reached a "price commitment" to limit the quantity and price of polysilicon imports, which is the reciprocal attitude given by China in response to the previous German and EU negotiations on the Sino-European PV dispute.
Consideration should be given to amending the German WACKER price commitment
However, this equivalent attitude did not last long.
"The simplest data evidence is that under the premise that China and Germany WACKER reached the polysilicon 'price commitment', Germany WACKER still achieved sales of 30,000 tons of polysilicon to China in 2014, even before the implementation of trade remedy measures. In 2013, the industry increased by 16%.†The above-mentioned industry insiders told reporters, “In contrast, due to the PV “price commitment†reached between China and Europe, China’s exports to the EU-15 countries fell to US$2.708 billion in 2014. , a year-on-year decrease of 15.92%".
At the same time, in the context of the “price commitmentâ€, which enjoys a more favorable tax rate between the United States and South Korea, Germany has also used the processing trade method to export to China to avoid tariffs. In February this year, China imported polysilicon from Germany according to processing trade. 1252 tons, accounting for 65.2% of the total imports from Germany in the same month; and in March this year, Germany imported polysilicon by processing trade still accounted for 53% of the total imports from Germany in the month.
"It is reported that the 'price commitment' signed by China and Germany's WACKER has only price restrictions, and the export commitment price is very close to its average selling price in the domestic market, and the exchange rate fluctuations have not been restricted. In the past year, the 'price commitment' has Exports have no effect." Relevant industry sources told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "But it is unfair, at the same time, the EU's price commitment to China's PV is strict price and price constraints, price constraints are harsh, resulting in price commitment After the Chinese PV export to the EU fell sharply, that is, the EU actually suppressed the development of domestic polysilicon and photovoltaic industry from the upstream and downstream.
For the strict control of overseas polysilicon imports, the industry also has a concern. If the reduction of overseas polysilicon imports may lead to changes in domestic market supply and demand, and even lead to a decline in domestic polysilicon quality.
However, according to the data, in the whole year of 2014, China imported 43,000 tons of processing trade from the United States and South Korea. In contrast, the actual net output of China's polysilicon in 2014 reached 48,000 tons, which is the new supply of domestic polysilicon. It is fully capable of making up for the processing trade gap caused by the import and export of processing trade, and if the new capacity of 76,000 tons/year in 2015 is taken into account, it will make up for the processing trade import gap of about 70,000 tons in the whole year. There is sufficient protection.
In addition, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch statistics show that in terms of product quality, although domestic polysilicon enterprises are mainly to meet the needs of the photovoltaic industry, but the product quality has reached the semiconductor level (semiconductor level is higher than the solar level purity requirements) ). At the same time, the product quality of China's first-line suppliers has fully met the national standards and definitions for semiconductor-grade silicon materials. Therefore, blocking imported polysilicon will not limit the PV companies' requirements for the quality of polysilicon products.
The industry appeals that under the above background, China should continue to strictly implement the “No. 58 Document†to suspend the processing of imported polysilicon from processing trade, block the loopholes in trade remedy measures through processing trade imports, and ensure the effectiveness and seriousness of the implementation of measures; At the same time, the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy of polysilicon should be reviewed in the mid-term. Including the review of the import of polysilicon in South Korea, the revision of the German Wacker price commitment.
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