Do you believe it? Harvard predicts that India’s economy will overtake China after 8 years

Although the "Dragon Elephant Battle" has been said for so many years, in the face of the economic aggregate and growth rate has long been higher than its own China, many Indians' inner thoughts may be like the movie "Wrestling!" A line in Dad - Believing that the future is a positive attitude, if this attitude is also "recognized" by the authorities, it will undoubtedly be more inspiring. Coincidentally, the Center for International Development of Harvard University recently published a development forecast report that the global economic growth will be transferred from China to India in the next decade.
But is this really true? Let's take a closer look at how Harvard says.

Indian netizen: Harvard is right, Modi, you are awesome. Every time I noticed, the Harvard International Development Center predicted in the report released on June 28 that by 2025, India’s GDP growth rate will reach 7.72. %, China's GDP growth rate slowed to 4.41%. The new data in 2015 in the report shows that China’s exports have declined. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, China’s economic complexity ranking has dropped by four for the first time.
What is Economic Complexity? According to the report, “Economic complexity describes the diversity and complexity of productivity embodied in national exports, and the ease with which these capabilities can be further diversified.” If a country produces the technology needed to modernize and refine its products. Knowledge increases and its economic growth rate may exceed that of other countries. The report believes that although China's economic complexity ranks higher than India, it has fallen four places to 23 places worldwide. While India is located at 46th, it is more diverse in terms of politics, institutions, geography and population, which gives it more room for production diversification.
Researchers believe that the rapid growth of the Chinese economy over the past decade has narrowed the gap between its complexity and income, which is a sign of a slowdown in growth. Growth forecasts show that China still exceeds the world average, but its growth rate is 4.4% per year over the next decade, which is significant compared to the current slowdown. The report pointed out that India's potential for future development is mainly due to its potential for diversified production and export. Today India is working hard to diversify its exports, including more complex industries such as chemicals, automobiles and electronics.
Ricardo Hausmann, a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School and director of the Center for International Development, said that today's major oil economies are mired in a single natural resource, "but in terms of production diversification and complexity, India, Indonesia and Vietnam have already Accumulated new potential and will achieve greater growth in the next few years."
The report also predicts that by 2025, Uganda is the only country with growth that may be faster than India, with a projected GDP growth rate of 7.73%. Xiao Bian noted that after the report was published, the media such as the times of India reported it recently, and some of the articles used were somewhat exaggerated. For example, the following title: "Harvard Research predicts China's economic growth. There will be a dramatic fall, India will be an impressive rise... Many Indian netizens are enthusiastic about following the article. The most common argument is this.
"If the current government does two more, India will undoubtedly become the world's number one country." "We Indians have known for a long time! The world today will finally recognize that we are the leading light. The groundbreaking decision made by Prime Minister Modi has completely changed the situation and we are getting a return."
“This is just the beginning, the best is yet to come. The country is moving in the right direction.”
There are even people who are excited to say that they want to "boycott Chinese good."
"We Indians want to stop trading with them. Buying Chinese goods means making them economically strong."
However, there are still Indian netizens who have expressed doubts or concerns about this.
"China's 4% growth is 440 billion US dollars, India's 7.5% is only 160 billion. It takes a long time to fill this ditch. It is said that it will go to 2075... I wish the people who lived at that time good luck. ."
"You can say it!"
Foreign media: To defeat China, to become China's "India catching up with China" is not a new proposition.
In 2003, Huang Yasheng of Harvard Business School and Tarren Kana of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published in the US Foreign Policy that India will eventually surpass China because the Chinese economy relies on fickle and unreliable foreign investment and technology. Driven, while India is driven primarily by domestic savings and entrepreneurship.
When China’s economic growth slows and India accelerates, the predictions of Huang Yasheng and Cana may come true. Harvard University's research report follows this logic.
But in fact, according to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, as early as the beginning of 2015, the "Foreign Policy" website published an article "Beat China, First to Be China", saying that India's economic growth surpasses China's premise, is to follow China's economic growth model. .
According to previous media reports, India adjusted its GDP calculation method at the beginning of 2015. If the new calculation standard is followed, the GDP of most countries will be raised. Affected by this, coupled with the 2016 pound sterling assists, a report released by Forbes magazine at the end of 2016 shows that India's total GDP has exceeded the United Kingdom. The news triggered the cheers of Indian domestic media.
On March 7 this year, India’s Economic Times also published an article comparing with China, entitled “China’s Five Reasons for Being Sophomore to India”. However, the article published on the Foreign Policy website earlier than the Forbes report pointed out that even if India’s economic growth rate really exceeds China, it is not surprising from the perspective of economic principles, because India’s base is low and growth according to the marginal diminishing effect. Speed ​​should be faster than China, which is richer than him.
Previously, every time I edited the World Bank data, I found that India’s GDP in 2015 was 2.095 trillion US dollars, while China’s GDP was 11.008 trillion US dollars, which was a big lead over India.
The above article also pointed out that India's prediction of surpassing China does not reflect the fact that China has maintained rapid growth while achieving very high GDP, and India has not realized its growth potential.
If India wants to surpass China, it must first make itself more like China. This is the opposite of Huang and Kana’s argument.
Prime Minister Modi is indeed trying to concentrate on building first-rate infrastructure and promoting large labor-intensive manufacturing projects that require foreign investment and technology.
If it can do all of this and take advantage of its population advantage of young people, India is likely to surpass China.
What do you think?

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