Abstract On the morning of September 20 (local time in Germany), the China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press conference at the conference center of the Hanover Exhibition Hall. Nearly 70 people from the national machine tool associations, as well as some exhibitor representatives and media reporters attended the conference. Chinese machine tool tools...
On the morning of September 20 (local time in Germany), the China Machine Tool Industry Association held a press conference at the conference center of the Hanover Exhibition Hall. Nearly 70 people from the national machine tool associations, as well as some exhibitor representatives and media reporters attended the conference. Mao Yufeng, executive vice chairman of China Machine Tool Industry Association, He Cailong, president of China International Exhibition Center Group, and Wang Liming, secretary general of China Machine Tool Industry Association attended the conference and took a seat on the rostrum. Wang Liming presided over the meeting. 
With the steady operation of China's economy and the good performance of the machine tool consumer market, as the largest well-known brand machine tool exhibition in China in the year, the success of CCMT2018 will be even more exciting!
Attachment: Full press release
Dear ladies and gentlemen,
good morning guys!
First of all, on behalf of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to all of you for attending this press conference! Today, I will share with you the latest information on the changes in China's economy, market and machine tool industry, and introduce the preparations for the 10th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2018) to be held in Shanghai next April. The progress. I hope that the above information we have carefully prepared will help you.
Since the fourth quarter of 2016, the market environment and industrial operation of China's machine tool tools have shown a recovery growth trend. This change is inseparable from China's economic and market environment. Based on the macro data, import and export data and industry statistics surveys of the National Bureau of Statistics, the following is an analysis of the recent economic situation in China and the machine tool market from the macro and microeconomic dimensions. The linkages between industry operations and trending laws, and the judgment of the year-round trend.
I. China's economy and market environment 1. Economic operation and investment According to the macroeconomic data of the National Bureau of Statistics in the first half of 2017, the gross domestic product (GDP) was about 38.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, a rise of 0.2 over the same period last year. Percentage points. It is expected that the GDP growth rate will be adjusted back in the second half of the year, but the annual growth rate will remain at the medium-to-high speed range of 6.5-6.9%.
From January to July 2017, the industrial added value grew by 6.8% year-on-year, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year. From the perspective of industrial categories, the top three growth rates of industrial added value are: computer and communication electronics (13.6%), automobiles (13.0%) and special equipment (12.1%); industrial added value increased year-on-year The three top speeds are: ferrous metal (0.7%), non-ferrous metals (2.0%) and chemical materials (4.0%).
From January to July 2017, the completion of fixed assets investment was about 33.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, the secondary industry grew by 3.4% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry grew by 4.8%, and the investment completion for equipment and equipment purchases increased by 7.1% year-on-year, -0.1, 1.8 and 5.3 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. Recently, the recovery growth of China's machine tool consumption market is inseparable from the growth of fixed asset investment. From the investment situation, the growth trend of machine tool consumption will continue this year.
On the other hand, the total investment in the newly started project of fixed assets and the availability of funds this year will reflect the slowdown in investment. The total investment growth rate of newly started projects is low from 2014 to 2015, between -2% and 15%; the growth rate in 2016 has increased rapidly and has remained at a high level, between 20% and 42%; 2017 The growth rate from January to June showed a negative growth, but the decline after June narrowed to 1.9% in July. The fixed assets investment in place has dropped from around 13% in 2014 to around 7% in 2015-2016. In the first half of 2017, it was basically in the negative growth range, and gradually rose to 1.5% year-on-year from June to July. The above changes indirectly reflect that investment will slow down in the second half of this year, and market consumption will shift from a rapid recovery to a smooth operation.
From the perspective of fixed assets investment in China's manufacturing sector in January-July 2017, the top investment is: non-metallic minerals (899.1 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year), chemical raw materials (77.34 billion yuan) , down 1.6% year-on-year, electrical machinery (7491 billion yuan, up 9.3% year-on-year), automobiles (716.20 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year), general equipment (7151 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year), computer and Communication Electronics (680.8 billion yuan, an increase of 27.2%). From the perspective of the breakdown of manufacturing investment, the proportion of traditional industries is large, and the growth rate of emerging industries is fast. The development of emerging industries and the upgrading of traditional industries in the future are all important directions for the upgrading of China's industrial structure.
In addition, with the “One Belt, One Road†strategy advocated by China being positively responded by the international community and becoming a new general consensus in international economic and trade relations, and the smooth development of the AIIB business, the upgraded version of global economic integration will supply and demand the future Chinese market. Play a stable expectation and add positive factors to the recovery of the world economy.
2. Cost and price By sorting out the ex-factory price index of industrial products in the sub-sector, the upstream and downstream price indices can be formed relative to the machine tool industry. The upstream product price index affects the manufacturing cost of the machine tool industry, and the downstream product price index affects the machine tool industry. The selling price. From the second half of 2014 to the end of 2015, the upstream price index of the machine tool industry dropped from 99.6% to 92.5%, and the downstream price index fell from 99.5% to 96.1%. The industry formed a manufacturing cost advantage, but the market demand was sluggish during the same period.
Since 2016, due to the rapid recovery of fixed asset investment, the manufacturing price has been affected by the rebound in raw material and energy prices. The upstream price index has climbed from 92.5% in January 2016 to 110.8% in February 2017. During the same period, the downstream price index rebounded slowly, and the industry faced a situation of “fast cost growth and increased sales competitionâ€. After February 2017, due to the combination of changes in currency liquidity, slower investment growth, and balance between supply and demand, the upstream and downstream price indices have fallen back and gradually moved closer together. This trend will be conducive to the smooth operation of the industry.
3. Liquidity and debt levels In recent years, China's monetary policy has maintained a stable and neutral strategy. From the trend of M2, M2 showed a significant growth in 2015, but since February 2016, M2 growth has entered the down channel. From January to July 2017, the money supply M2 was about 163.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
The trend of changes in the money supply has been related to the recent push for leverage in the financial industry. For a period of time, the high leverage of the corporate sector and the rapid rise in the leverage of the financial sector have caused the Chinese government to pay attention to the prevention and control of financial risks. In terms of the specific requirements for de-leveraging work, "it is necessary to reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises as the top priority under the premise of controlling the total leverage ratio." The promotion of leverage in the financial industry and off-balance-sheet business, inter-bank business, and asset management business The excessive development of services such as channel services is inseparable. The recent efforts to strengthen the leverage reduction will undoubtedly also inhibit the idling of funds in this part of the financial system, leading to a decline in the growth rate of M2, which will play a good role in promoting the flow of financial capital to the real economy.
It can also be seen from the monthly changes in the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) that the tight liquidity situation in the first half of this year has improved, which is more favorable for the stable operation of the economy in the second half of the year. Since December 2016, the trend of SHIBOR has been rising month by month. Among them, the one-month interest rate monthly average has increased from 3.284% in December 2016 to 4.417% in June 2017, an increase of 113.3 basis points. By August, SHIBOR had gradually fallen back.
Another area that needs attention is the level of leverage of the corporate sector, and the asset-liability ratio of the user industry (such as automobiles, railway transportation, electrical machinery, electronic communications, special equipment, general equipment, metal products, etc.) related to machine tools. Since June 2014, the asset-liability ratio has generally shown a downward trend.
4. Exchange rate and trade balance Since July 2015, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has entered the depreciation channel. The monthly average value of the RMB intermediate price has risen from 611.7 yuan to 100 US dollars to the highest value of 691.8 yuan to 100 US dollars in December 2016. Stable at a higher level. The depreciation of the renminbi is a double-edged sword for China's machine tool industry. On the one hand, it is beneficial for the industry to participate in international capacity cooperation and open up the international market, on the other hand, it increases the cost of importing high-performance raw materials and core components. Due to the low international dependence of China's machine tool industry (12.7% for metalworking machine tools and 51.0% for tools in 2016), the dependence on imported core components is high, and the decline of RMB exchange rate has certain disadvantages for industrial development in the near future. influences.
In the trade balance of China's machine tool tools, there is a large trade deficit. In the past two years, due to the decline in domestic market demand, the import of machine tools has been affected. At the same time, foreign brands have increased the scale of construction in China, and local companies have attached importance to international market development. With the continuous expansion of exports, the degree of trade deficit in the field of machine tools has declined. In the first half of 2017, the trade deficit of metal processing machine tools was US$2.32 billion, down 9.7% year-on-year.
5. Macroeconomic prosperity For the near and future period, the trend of the machine tool consumption market can be analyzed from the macroeconomic situation. Judging from the changes in China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), the PMI index of the State Administration of Taxation and Caixin.com in the first half of 2017 showed a divergence. The PMI of the National Bureau of Statistics was above the glory line, and the new PMI was presented. The month fell back. After June, the PMI indices of the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin.com both rose above the line of glory. In July 2017, the manufacturing PMIs of the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin were 51.4% and 51.1% respectively.
6. The main listed companies in the typical domestic user field operate the following eight typical sub-divided user areas that are most relevant to the machine tool consumer market (automobiles, auto parts, aerospace and defense industries, energy equipment, ships and Analysis of the situation of 247 major listed companies in marine engineering, railway and rail transit, construction machinery, and steel, and the trend information of relevant sub-divided users.
From the change of cash flow of listed companies in the typical user field, the cash flow from operating activities was negative, and the cash flow in the first quarter of 2017 decreased by 187.4% year-on-year; the investment expenditure was adjusted back, and the net investment expenditure in the first quarter of 2017 decreased by 39.9% year-on-year, but The net cash used to purchase and construct fixed assets decreased by 5.3% year-on-year; the financing environment was significantly improved, and the net financing in the first quarter of 2017 increased by 53.1% year-on-year. Considering that the operating cash flow in the first quarter is greatly affected by the product delivery cycle, it is expected that the data will gradually improve after half a year; from the cash flow of investment and financing, the trend of investment growth in the user sector this year can still be confirmed.
Second, China's machine tool consumption market and industrial operation 1, machine tool consumption market In the first half of 2017, China's metal processing machine tool consumption was about 13.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.8%. Among them, the import value of metal processing machine tools was about 3.8 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2017, the consumption of metal processing machine tools was about 9 billion US dollars, down 2.2% year-on-year. Among them, the import value of metal cutting machine tools was about 3.1 billion US dollars, down 4.0% year-on-year. The consumption of metal forming machine tools was approximately US$4.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Among them, the import value of metal forming machine tools was about 700 million US dollars, down 0.6% year-on-year.
In the first half of 2017, China's tool consumption was about 2.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 26.3%. Among them, the import value of tools is about 800 million US dollars, an increase of 14.3%.
Affected by the substantial growth in investment in the user sector and the expected recovery in market operations, the Chinese machine tool and tool consumer market showed a recovery growth in the first half of 2017. Among them, the consumption of metal forming machine tools and tools rebounded significantly, mainly due to the significant growth in domestic production and import year-on-year data; the consumption of metal cutting machine tools declined slightly due to the sluggish domestic production and the significant decline in imports. Due to the strong correlation between the consumption of metal forming machine tools and tools and the short- and medium-term conditions of economic and industrial operations, metal cutting machine tools are highly correlated with medium and long-term expectations of economic and industrial operations. Therefore, the trend of China's machine tool consumption market is showing a trend of recovery in the short to medium term.
The front is to show the situation of China's machine tool consumption market from the perspective of the completion of the supply side. The following is an analysis of the trend of China's machine tool consumption in the short-term and medium-term from the demand side. According to the annual data of 91 major industrial products produced by the National Bureau of Statistics and the consumption relationship of machine tools and tools, the model is “China Machine Tool Demand Indexâ€, which comprehensively reflects the relationship and trend of consumption demand relative to the base period. prediction. On the whole, the demand index has a strong correlation with the historical trend of the completion of China's machine tool consumption, and the trend is basically the same. The specific situations reflected are as follows:
(1) Metal cutting machine tools, the demand index began to show a recovery in 2016, and the rebound trend in 2017 slowed down compared with 2016;
(2) Metal forming machine tools, the demand index began to show a recovery growth in 2016, and the rebound trend in 2017 is more significant than in 2016;
(3) The cutting tool began to pick up in 2016, and it still showed a clear upward trend in 2017;
(4) Abrasives, the demand index increased significantly in 2016, and the growth trend in 2017 has narrowed.
It should be pointed out that the index reflects the potential market demand, and there is a certain error between it and the actual consumption, which is mainly affected by factors such as macroeconomic environmental policy changes, investment status and expectations. If the environmental factors do not mutate or fluctuate significantly, the correlation between the actual consumption situation and the demand index is strong.
2. Machine Tool Industry Operation In the first half of 2017, the output of China's metal processing machine tools was approximately US$11.3 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year. Among them, exports were about 1.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.5.
In the first half of 2017, the main segment of metal processing machine tools, the output of metal cutting machine tools was about 6.9 billion US dollars, which was flat year-on-year. Among them, exports were about $1 billion, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. The output of metal forming machine tools was approximately US$4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. Among them, exports were about 500 million US dollars, an increase of 7.8%.
In the first half of 2017, China's tool output was about 2.9 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.8%. Among them, the export value of tools was about 1.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.3%.
3. Prosperity in the field of machine tool tools In the first half of 2017, through the questionnaire survey of 136 key enterprises in China's machine tool industry and major foreign companies in China, the prosperity index and related analysis results were formed. The company's product sales revenue in 2016 was approximately US$12.8 billion, which is quite representative in terms of industrial distribution and structure.
---------------------- Distribution Structure----------------------
According to the ownership system, 46 state-owned and collectively-owned companies accounted for 44% of total sales; privately-owned 54 companies accounted for 20% of total sales; foreign-funded and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan holdings accounted for 18% of total sales; the other 16 accounted for 18% of sales.
According to product distribution, 64 metal cutting machine tools accounted for 63% of total sales; 19 metal forming machine tools accounted for 18% of total sales; tools and abrasives accounted for 27% of total sales; functional components and numerical control devices 26 companies accounted for 7% of total sales.
By region, 88 in the east accounted for 77% of total sales; 29 in central China accounted for 11% of total sales; and 19 in the west accounted for 12% of total sales.
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In the first half of 2017, China's machine tool industry's prosperity index was 62.5%, which was above the glory line, up 8.6 percentage points from the end of 2016, and continued to expand.
(1) From the perspective of corporate ownership, foreign-funded enterprises (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) continued to maintain the highest level of 73.3%, up 17% from the end of 2016; privately-held enterprises were 62.2%, up 7.8 percentage points from the end of 2016; The collective) holding company was 60.5%, up 6.2 percentage points from the end of 2016; other companies were 43.2%, down 8.2 percentage points from the end of 2016, showing a contraction.
(2) From the perspective of subdivided products, the measuring tools and abrasives increased rapidly to 65.3%, up 21.4% from the end of 2016; the prosperity of CNC devices and functional components dropped 64.6%, down 3.8 from the end of 2016. The percentage of metal forming machine tools was 62.7%, up by 0.9 percentage points from the end of 2016; the metal cutting machine tool was 61.1%, up 9.8 percentage points from the end of 2016.
(3) From the perspective of economic factors, the orders and operating indexes of enterprises in the machine tool field were 75.0% and 63.3%, respectively, up 14.4 and 8.2 percentage points from the end of 2016, and continued to show an expansion trend; the cost and environmental index were 46.4% and 47.3% continued to show a contraction trend, which was 3.4 and -0.7 percentage points lower than the end of 2016; the expected index was 66.8%, up 10.3 percentage points from the end of 2016.
4. Full-year forecast In summary, the forecast for the machine tool consumer market and industrial operation this year is higher than the forecast at the end of last year. At the same time, taking into account the uncertainties in the economic environment and market demand changes in the second half of the year, it is expected that the consumption of machine tools in 2017 will show a slight increase or flat year-on-year. This year, industrial operations and exports will show a steady recovery, and the decline in imports will narrow.
3. China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT) is a brand exhibition established by Shanghai Machine Tool Industry Association in Shanghai in 2000. It has been successfully held for nine consecutive years. In the past 17 years, the venue of the exhibition has changed. In order to adapt to the new changes in the Chinese market and the new needs of exhibitors, since 2014, China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition has returned to Shanghai, relying on the good software and hardware of Shanghai New International Expo Center. Conditions, to create an international, professional machine tool exhibition for China's most active economic region, is committed to building a first-class display, communication and marketing platform for domestic and foreign first-class exhibitors. Below I briefly review the development history of CCMT and introduce the progress of CCMT preparation organization.
1. Previous exhibitions Starting from CCMT2000, China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition is based on the exchange and display of the latest trends in technology, products and market demand in the field of CNC machine tools in China. Therefore, more and more domestic and foreign exhibitors, professional visitors, users and government officials are constantly attracting attention to the exhibition, visiting the exhibition and supporting the exhibition. By this, the exhibition area, the number of exhibitors and the composition of the China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition, and the number of visitors will increase gradually. From the following data, the development of the exhibition can be clearly seen.
ï¬ The exhibition area increased from 15,800 square meters in CCMT2000 to 120,000 square meters in CCMT2016, with an average growth rate of 28.8%.
ï¬ The number of exhibitors increased from 244 in CCMT2000 to 1148 in CCMT2016, with an average growth rate of 21.4%. Among them, the number of overseas exhibitors increased from 0 to 371, and the number of overseas exhibitors at CCMT2016 accounted for 32.3%.
ï¬ The audience increased from 43,000 in CCMT2000 to 146,000 in CCMT2016, with an average growth rate of 16.5%.
The success of the last CCMT2016 has raised the exhibition to a higher level. In addition to the basic situation of the exhibition mentioned above, CCMT2016 exhibits higher level and more variety, in addition to CNC metalworking machine tools, high-performance CNC equipment, high-performance tool systems, cutting tools and abrasive tools, CNC machine tool core components and Accessories, industrial measuring instruments and other traditional machine tool products, as well as the recent rise and rapid growth of industrial robots, automation, intelligent manufacturing systems, additive manufacturing, engineering software and other product technology fields. It can be said that CCMT2016 not only fully demonstrates the latest market demand, but also actively responds to the latest market demand, which is a rare opportunity for both supply and demand.
2. Preparations for CCMT2018 On April 9-13, 2018, the 10th China CNC Machine Tool Exhibition (CCMT2018) will be held at the Shanghai New International Expo Center. At present, preparations for the exhibition are being carried out in an orderly manner. CCMT2018 will continue to use W1-W5 and N1-N5 in 17 pavilions of Shanghai New International Expo Center, with a total of 10 pavilions with an exhibition area of ​​120,000 square meters. The exhibits will bring together the latest needs of the Chinese machine tool consumer market and the world's latest manufacturing technologies and products. During the exhibition, China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association will continue to increase the organization and service of the exhibition, provide more convenient and high-quality supporting services, arrange rich and targeted exhibition activities, and organize more professional visitors with purchasing power and cooperation intentions. communicate with. With the steady operation of China's economy and more financial capital returning to the real economy, China's machine tool consumption market will be more active, which will certainly provide a good market atmosphere for CCMT2018. I believe that through our unremitting efforts and the support of our partners, CCMT2018 will become a more successful international, professional and branded exhibition.
Thank you again for listening, I hope to keep in touch with you, strengthen communication, and sincerely invite everyone to participate in CCMT2018, and look forward to meeting you in Shanghai! Thank you!
China Machine Tool Industry Association
September 2017
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