Looking at the future trend of distributed photovoltaics from policy planning, economics and business models

In 2017, the domestic PV market continued to break out. In the first three quarters, the country's new PV power generation installed capacity exceeded 43 million kilowatts, accumulating more than 120 million kilowatts; of which distributed new more than 15 million kilowatts, cumulatively more than 25 million kilowatts, distributed photovoltaic installed capacity The proportion reached 36%, especially after 630. The contribution of distributed photovoltaic power: accumulated electricity in the first three quarters exceeded 10 billion kWh, accounting for 18% of all photovoltaic power generation in September. At the "3rd Photovoltaic Power Plant Quality Summit Forum" hosted by Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network on November 26-27, the National Institute of Development and Reform Energy Research Institute made a detailed analysis of the trend of distributed PV policy. There are 5 distributed photovoltaics in the province of more than 1 million kilowatts, accounting for 63% . This year, the domestic distributed photovoltaic power generation market presents some typical characteristics. In the past two years, various types of “photovoltaic+” such as agricultural photovoltaics, water photovoltaics, fishing and light complementarity, and photovoltaics along highways and railways have been applied. When the State Council issued Document No. 24 in July 2013, the distributed photovoltaics that were thought of at that time were mainly building photovoltaics and rooftop photovoltaics. I did not expect that many new concepts and application forms would come out in just three or four years. Especially this year, it can be said that the industry has formed a basic consensus. In 2017, distributed photovoltaics is a hot spot, and rooftop photovoltaics for civil buildings is a hot spot. Only the national grid data, the cumulative number of distributed PV installations increased from 203,500 at the end of 2016 to 415,600 at the end of June 2017. Secondly, the domestic distributed PV new market has a wide distribution and high concentration characteristics. In addition to Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, all other provinces and cities have a certain amount of installation. In the first three quarters of this year, there were 5 provinces with distributed photovoltaics exceeding 1 million kilowatts, accounting for 63%, and the top ten provinces accounted for 87%, basically still in the eastern part. The top ten provinces not only have a large amount of distributed PV market, but also their concentrated PV in the new market has reached 55%. It can be said that whether it is centralized photovoltaic power station or distributed photovoltaic, Shandong, Anhui, Zhejiang, The provinces of Henan, Hebei, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, and Jilin are all hot spots. 2017110908304319.png The four major drivers of distributed PV development are why these provinces are ranked so large. At the meeting, Shi Lili summarized some of the major drivers in the near future. From the perspective of the internal factors of the photovoltaic industry, photovoltaic power generation technology continues to advance, and the price of photovoltaic modules and the entire system, and the cost of power generation continue to decline. In addition, the best-developed provinces, as well as the more developed provinces, are closer to such a market. From the perspective of external policies, distributed PV has always received strong support from national and local policies. From the very beginning, the national policy has pushed up the distributed photovoltaics, but the effect of this year has been significantly reflected. Especially in the central and eastern regions, the distribution of distributed photovoltaic electricity prices and electricity subsidies is very strong. Relatively speaking, in the last one or two years, centralized power stations have been unstable in terms of scale of development, declining electricity prices, power cuts in some areas, and unreasonable charges in land and places. From the perspective of the advantages of distributed photovoltaics, in addition to rooftop photovoltaics, there are more flexible and diverse application forms, and fewer restrictive factors. In addition, distributed PV is less affected by the implementation of the policy, especially for a part of the self-use of electricity, such as general industrial and commercial or industrial users, distributed photovoltaic systems are less dependent on subsidies, many of the current level of investment in photovoltaic power generation Under the circumstance, many projects can achieve basic profit without relying on subsidies, so this is also a very important advantage. From the perspective of distributed development environment, public awareness and market, the scope and scale of the distributed PV market have gradually expanded, which has brought about a demonstration effect. The public, investment and financing institutions, including insurance institutions, have a significant understanding of the distribution. Ascension, their enthusiasm and participation have also been significantly improved. Distributed photovoltaics, both in terms of business models and operating models, are gradually maturing. The distributed photovoltaic power generation policy framework interprets the distributed photovoltaic power generation policy framework based on the No. 24 document “Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry” issued by the State Council in 2013. Under this document, the relevant central government departments have issued dozens of support distributed. Policy documents for power generation development. These documents have requirements for distributed photovoltaics in terms of planning, project management, grid connection, electricity price subsidies, taxation policies, marketization and business models. The above will be introduced one by one. From the perspective of development goals, the “13th Five-Year Plan” photovoltaic power generation goal is a guiding goal, not a binding goal. According to the plan, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation will reach 105 million kilowatts in 2020 (as reached in July 2017), and the goal of distributed guidance is 60 million kilowatts. From the perspective of scale management, distributed PV is still not limited by scale, so at least from the perspective of national development, distributed PV is still an area that encourages vigorous development in the next few years. And at the end of last year and early this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau issued a series of energy, electricity, renewable energy, solar energy and photovoltaic power generation planning, roof distributed photovoltaic utilization is the first priority task, but also stressed the need to promote Comprehensive utilization of various types of distributed photovoltaics. The recording of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects, taking Beijing as an example, can be divided into two forms: Legal entity record location: Districts and counties Development and Reform Commission Information: Distributed photovoltaic power generation project filing application form; project implementation plan; project unit business license; property rights Proof (the project unit is a non-property person, the cooperation agreement between the property owner and the project unit is issued); the construction contract or cooperation agreement; the power of attorney; the copy of the ID card of the authorized person; other materials that should be submitted. Natural person filing Location: District (county) grid enterprise registration on behalf of the data: distributed photovoltaic power project filing application form; project implementation plan; natural person identification; property rights certificate; construction contract or cooperation agreement; other materials should be submitted. On the grid connection, for distributed photovoltaic power generation, grid companies provide access network solutions and network installation facilities, grid connection acceptance and commissioning, electricity metering, electricity bill payment and subsidy fund management, and on behalf of filing (natural persons only) services and services are free. For the grid-connected service, the State Grid and the South Network have issued specific implementation rules. For example, in June 2017, the State Grid issued the “Opinions of the State Grid on Promoting Distributed Power Grid-Connected Management (Revised Edition)”, which clearly defines the distributed scope of the State Grid: 10 kV and below, and A distributed power supply with a total installed capacity of no more than 6 MW at a single grid point; a distributed power supply with a total installed capacity of more than 6 megawatts at a single kilowatt point and a self-contained self-use of more than 50%; 35 kV Voltage level access, distributed power supply with self-use power greater than 50% per year. In terms of tax policy, in July 2013 and July 2016, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a policy document to implement a policy of refunding 50% of the value-added tax on photovoltaic power generation, but there is a valid period. The time limits of the two policy documents are respectively 2013-2015, 2016-2018. Of course, the industry expects this to be a long-term policy or at least sustainable. In the same situation, the cost difference is 2-4 points/kWh compared with the non-VAT policy. According to Shi Lili, the VAT preferential policy is expected to continue. At the end of August this year, the National Energy Administration and other ministries and commissions jointly issued a draft for consultation, namely, the Notice on Reducing the Tax Burden of Enterprises in the Field of Renewable Energy. ", the notice clarifies that the VAT will be renewed until December 31, 2020. The notice also clearly stipulates the occupation of land taxes and fees: cultivated land occupation tax - photovoltaic power generation project occupies cultivated land, does not occupy the land for photovoltaic arrays, does not change the surface form, exempt from farmland occupation tax; urban land use tax - Land use photovoltaic power generation projects shall be used in cities, county towns, towns, industrial and mining areas, and the provincial government shall approve the criteria for the levy. If the scale of the town is not reached and the land within the planned town is not built, no land use tax shall be levied; If the threshold is met, the photovoltaic array will not occupy the land, and the part that does not change the surface form will be exempted from the urban land use tax. In addition, the verification of agricultural land such as suitable forest land and grassland will be regulated, and the farmland occupation tax and urban land use will be regulated. Land tax and other taxes and fees for forest vegetation and grassland vegetation restoration fees. In terms of photovoltaic power prices, large-scale photovoltaic power plants have been implementing benchmark electricity prices since 2011. Distributed photovoltaics have been implementing the electricity subsidy mechanism since 2013. Of course, distributed photovoltaics can be selected in two modes, one for self-use and the other for online use. Mode, the total price subsidy is 0.42 yuan / kWh; the second is the full-scale online mode, the PV benchmark price (consistent with the centralized power station price and subsidy management model); the two modes are optional when the project is put into operation. After that, it can be adjusted in one direction (the balance is turned to the full amount of Internet access) once. Up to now, the PV benchmark price has undergone several rounds of adjustment. The principle of benchmarking price adjustment is based on cost plus reasonable profit. In addition, we must consider such a subsidy declining mechanism for the development scale of photovoltaic power generation. According to these two principles, during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, especially next year, whether it is benchmarking electricity price or distributed photovoltaic power subsidy, price reduction and subsidy declining is a very important trend, and it is a great probability. event. In this regard, Julie hopes to adopt a relatively moderate slope-removing mechanism, such as learning the German two-month mode. Before 2020, photovoltaic power generation should achieve the goal of low-cost Internet access on the sales side. In the period of 2022-2023, the net-side side of the Internet will be able to achieve a sustained and smooth development. In addition to the central electricity price policy, various localized policies for distributed photovoltaics have been implemented in various places, most of which are subsidies for electricity, and a small part are investment subsidies. The local subsidy policy has been adjusted more frequently, and it has been added almost every month, and it has also been withdrawn every month. For photovoltaic power generation development enterprises, it must be paid attention to in real time. The economics of distributed photovoltaic power generation. For most provinces and cities in the country, the distributed subsidy of 0.42 yuan / kWh has not been adjusted since 2013, so in fact, the economic advantage of distributed power generation has been significantly higher than centralized photovoltaic power plants. In particular, the economical mode of spontaneous use of surplus power online mode is higher than the mode of full Internet access. The annual guaranteed income of distributed photovoltaic power generation in most parts of the country (in the full online mode) is 700-1100 yuan, and some eastern and central provinces have slightly lower returns. However, due to local implementation of electricity price subsidy policies, these areas have become distributed photovoltaic markets. Main area. 1510190409101916.png
Differences in returns in different modes of distributed photovoltaic power generation (Source: ERI/CNREC, 2016.12) 1510190461136143.png Once: ( "Study of renewable energy pricing mechanism reform under the situation of power" sources) grid parity is simply above distributed photovoltaic power generation regional economy (full online mode, according to 70% of the operating efficiency of the system) It is mentioned that even in 2020, even ahead of time, it is necessary to realize the parity of the photovoltaic power generation on the sales side. So what is the fundamental of PV parity? It lies in the technological progress and industrial upgrading of the photovoltaic industry. Shi Lili made such a prediction at the meeting: here will be divided into two phases from 2017 to 2023, each phase is three years, from the perspective of distributed photovoltaic power generation costs and electricity price demand, 2020 one to three The area of ​​almost 5 to 7 hairs can achieve relatively obvious benefits. 2020-2023 is the middle of the "14th Five-Year Plan". Distributed photovoltaics can basically reach the price of 4 to 5 hairs, which can guarantee comparison. Good economy, it can be said that 4 to 5 hairs 5 can basically achieve the goal of parity. The key to the subsidy retreat and exit time point is that the external environment can achieve full subsidy in 2023, even on the Internet side, but the key to subsidizing the slope and exit time is the external environment, especially for distributed photovoltaics. Said that the external policy environment is the most important. The key is to innovate the mode of distributed photovoltaics in power distribution measurement and consumption and market transactions, to refine the standard of distributed photovoltaic subsidies, and fully realize the sales side parity of industrial users by 2020. Here is an example of Beijing: According to the total system efficiency of 70%, considering the investment level of 6500 yuan/kW in the second half of 2017, the electricity price demand is 0.78 yuan/kWh. For the general industrial and commercial users, if the proportion of self-sufficiency is 65%, considering the alternative power of photovoltaic power generation to implement the peak and peak electricity prices, it has reached the sales side parity, no subsidy; if the self-use ratio is 33%, the electricity subsidy The demand is 0.21 yuan / kWh, which is only half of the current subsidy standard. For residential users, schools, hospitals and other power users of civil electricity prices, if the self-use ratio reaches 100%, the demand for electricity subsidies is 0.30 yuan / kWh, which is lower than the current subsidy standard; due to the output and use of these users' photovoltaic power generation systems The consistency of electricity demand is poor in time, and the proportion of spontaneous use is half. If the subsidy demand is 0.36 yuan/kWh according to the 50% self-use ratio, the current subsidy standard still has room to fall; if all electricity is delivered to the grid Select the "full online" model, the actual income is 0.75 yuan / kWh (2017 policy), select the "burning coal benchmark + electricity subsidy" model, the actual income is 0.78 yuan / kWh. If Beijing local electricity price subsidy is considered (the local subsidy policy is distributed photovoltaic project for grid-connected power generation in 2015-2019, the subsidy standard is 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy lasts for 5 years), which is equivalent to increasing the electricity price subsidy of 0.075 yuan for the whole operation period. / kWh (static), 0.12 yuan / kWh (dynamic). Generally speaking, in the second half of this year and next year, the industrial and commercial users who have achieved a certain proportion of self-sufficiency have already had the exit subsidy condition. If the industrial user PV reaches a certain proportion of self-use ratio, it can greatly reduce the electricity subsidy, and the civilian electricity price is photovoltaic. In some areas, there is also a small reduction in subsidy space. The distributed photovoltaic power generation subsidy policy suggests how to generate electricity revenue from the partition wall? The next step is to adjust the subsidy policy for distributed photovoltaic power generation. It is possible to adjust the subsidy quota of distributed photovoltaics according to the user type. Residential building photovoltaics and other distributed photovoltaics are treated differently. And may need to combine other mechanisms to adjust the amount of subsidy in real time. For example, this year's voluntary green electricity collection system will be implemented. If the mandatory green power system can be promoted next year and distributed PV can be included in this mandatory implementation, the subsidy rate may be slightly faster. Another point is to improve the proportion of distributed photovoltaic self-sufficiency, how to improve? It may be necessary to take advantage of distributed local consumption, to establish a platform for fair competition in the participation of distributed photovoltaics. In fact, it can be combined with the current power transmission and distribution reform and the sale of electricity. In general, it is the form of selling electricity in the wall, and promoting the transfer of distributed photovoltaic power. This piece needs to innovate a policy for grid service costs. Why? Because according to the current transmission and distribution price accounting system implemented in more than ten provinces and cities, the lower the voltage, the higher the transmission and distribution price, and the power transmission and distribution price of about 2 hair may be added to the wall. In addition, there must be a government fund and cross-subsidization of some exchange networks. In fact, it may be necessary to increase the cost of the corresponding transmission and distribution of almost two or three hairs and the fund fees paid. That may not be as direct sales to the grid. Amount online. Innovative Distributed PV Application Business Model In March this year, the National Energy Administration issued a “Notice on Launching a Pilot Program for Distributed Power Marketization Trading”. The draft for 7 months has passed, and it is still in the stage of soliciting opinions, and has not been officially announced. According to the analysis of the time, this document is too difficult to introduce, because this document has included distributed power generation in a package, not only photovoltaic, biomass power generation, natural gas distributed generation, etc. are included, distribution The scope of the formula is relatively large, and it is hoped that it will be implemented nationwide, so it may be more resistant to all parties. In the view of Shi Lili, distributed PV is the most mature. Can we use distributed PV as a pilot to explore the mode of distributed generation, or choose three or five provinces and cities in the central and eastern regions for the near-term pilot? After that, the corresponding scope is expanded, so that the corresponding mode of power supply is gradually explored. If this policy is implemented, it will help to expand the scale and scope of the distributed PV market application, which will enable a variety of "photovoltaic +" and other application models to be scaled up, and new forms can emerge. It is possible that in 2020, especially during the fourteenth five-year period, distribution can become the most mainstream mode for future applications. In the "Notice on the Pilot Project of Distributed Power Generation Marketization Trading", three modes are mainly proposed. The first one is the power-transfer mode, that is, the direct electricity transaction between power generation and power users, paying the network fee to the grid, and self-use and 10/20 kV voltage level access and the same variable station area to absorb, free of network fees, 35/110 kV voltage level access and the same change station area, network fee = the highest transmission and distribution price in the region - The voltage level of the power user is the transmission and distribution price; the second type is the "power grid sales and collection of electricity charges" mode, distributed power generation commissioned by the grid to sell electricity, the sale price is "integrated electricity price - network fee (including Line loss) can solve the problem that the “contract management mode” of distributed photovoltaic power generation is difficult to collect electricity from power users and the difficulty of contract execution. If the plan is based on the proposal, the network fee level is low; the third is the original “remaining” The amount of Internet access, grid acquisition mode, but to improve the grid to buy electricity prices, distributed power generation does not participate in market-based transactions, grid acquisition, the purchase price of electricity is "burning coal benchmark price +110 kV transmission and distribution price." After mode to promote the smooth, distributed photovoltaic market to fully realize direct trade and competition pattern in 2020, into a subsidy does not rely on market-based competition model, distributed PV potential for future development will be more broad.

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