The “energy transformation†with the main content of vigorously developing renewable energy to replace fossil energy and reduce carbon emissions has become an important part of energy policy in many countries. Renewable energy development targets have been established in 164 countries around the world, and about 145 countries have enacted renewable energy support policies.
However, the contrast between the “necessity†of renewable energy development and “economic feasibilityâ€, the obstruction of renewable energy development by traditional energy interest groups, the intentional or unintentional misinterpretation of the development path, determines the alternative fossils of renewable energy. The road to energy will be tortuous, difficult and repetitive.
In our country, a more intense contrast is: on the one hand, we “extremely attach importance to†renewable energy development, and continue to introduce policies to support the development of renewable energy; on the other hand, the appropriate way to turn to the existing energy system Research on energy systems based on “renewable energy is “highly neglectedâ€. The lack of basic research and systematic thinking on how to transform renewable energy leads to the policy that the system promotes energy transformation is “independent†in practice, and evolves to achieve a certain “established shareâ€.
Put renewable energy development into the historical process of human energy transformation, explore the basic connotation and motivation of energy transformation, sort out the logic of energy transformation, systematically analyze the similarities and differences between renewable energy transformation and historical energy transformation, and correctly understand China's renewable The problems and transformation methods in energy development are not only theoretically necessary but also practically important.
One question: How does energy transformation occur? Many reports and papers equate the term “energy transition†with “transformation to renewable energy†or “low carbon transformationâ€. This meaning may come at first from a report published by the German Academy of Sciences in 1980: "Energy Transformation: No Growth and Prosperity of Oil and Uranium." The report’s call for a total abandonment of nuclear power and petroleum energy was strongly opposed, but it gradually evolved into the basic content of German energy policy after entering the 21st century. Correspondingly, the meaning of the German “energy transition†has gradually evolved into “turning to distributed renewable energy and improving energy efficiency†and declared that the ultimate goal is to establish a 100% renewable energy-based energy system.
The meaning of energy transformation is of course not just the development of renewable energy. In a more general sense, energy transformation is often understood as a process of conversion or replacement of a country or society-led energy source. For example, coal replaces fuelwood and becomes the dominant energy source, and oil replaces coal as the dominant energy source. However, this descriptive understanding of energy transition, and related research based on this understanding, is difficult to adapt to the needs of complex and rich energy transformation practices and does not provide insight into current energy transitions.
American natural gas expert Robert Hefner III tried to find another way. In his 2009 book, The Great Transformation of Energy, Robert Hefner III has three physical forms of energy, namely solids (wood, coal, etc.), liquids (oil) and gases (natural gas, wind, solar). Starting from hydrogen energy, the history and future of human energy utilization are summarized as two energy transformations: the first energy transformation is the transformation of solid energy into liquid energy, and the second energy transformation is the transformation of liquid energy into gas energy. This view has theoretical abstraction and logical consistency, which provides a valuable observational perspective for us to understand the direction of energy transformation. However, this theory is too abstract for the judgment criteria of energy transition, and lacks in-depth research on the connotation and characteristics of energy transition. There is limited effect on understanding how energy is transformed.
Professor Vaclav Smil of Canada believes that energy transformation is a process of changing energy structure driven by various energy use “prime moversâ€. “Every time the more efficient new energy prime mover replaces the old prime mover, it significantly increases the amount of energy that humans can use, and energy transformation will happen.â€
Professor Smir divides human energy utilization into four energy transformations according to the “primary motive standardâ€: the first energy transformation takes place between 10,000 and 5,000 years ago, and humans replace some of the manpower through domesticated animals; the second energy transformation takes place. In the 1000 BC, the emergence of windmills and waterwheels further replaced the muscles of humans and animals; the third energy transformation started with the expansion of steam after the improvement of the steam engine in 1765, and further improved the energy transformation of coal instead of fuelwood. process. The fourth energy transformation took place along with the invention of the generator, and in 1882 the world's first central power station was put into use in New York and London, and humans entered the era of electrification.
Professor Smir's "original invention, improvement and diffusion" logic provides us with very illuminating insights into the history of energy transition "when it happens" and "how it happens." However, a review of the history of human energy use reveals that there are at least two problems in determining energy transitions with a single criterion of “primary motivesâ€:
First, some energy transitions from the prime mover standards have not really led to the ultimate energy becoming the “dominant energy†and thus do not constitute an energy transition at the human society or at the national level. For example, in the 1000 BC, with the appearance of windmills and waterwheels, wind power and water energy did not become the dominant energy source in the general range, let alone the world. This is due to the limitations of wind and water energy, and has nothing to do with the efficiency of the prime mover. The second is the fourth energy transformation triggered by the emergence of “generatorsâ€. It deviates from the logic of “primary energy†and enters secondary energy (electrification). This transformation has contradictions and conflicts with the current development of clean and low carbonization. This is because the “primer†efficiency and energy level of fossil fuel power generation will further enhance the competitiveness of fossil fuels, which is not conducive to the transition to clean fuels. Therefore, the value and significance of any non-primary energy technology revolution for “energy transformation†must be returned to the “source†of the primary energy it depends on.
In order to better describe the logic of historical energy transformation and explain the future energy transformation, the author defines energy transformation as: the energy transformation is driven by the prime mover, accompanied by the profound changes in the energy system, the long-term change process of the primary energy structure. The occurrence and deepening of energy transformation is due to the development and development of a “primitive motive†that can transform the energy transformation at the national and even global levels, just as the history of steam engines is for coal, and for internal combustion engines for oil. same.
Second question: At what stage is China's energy transformation?
At what stage is China's energy transformation, and the next energy transformation is the first transformation? The answer to the different criteria for energy transition is different. Based on the above new definition of energy transition, at the national level, energy transition should meet three criteria:
First, there must be “technical innovation†or “primary motives†that lead to major changes in energy use patterns. Energy transformation is not a simple “accumulation†of the use of “new†energy varieties. Coal in the medieval British cities is very common. By the early 18th century, not only was the home heating in the UK, but coal was used in many industrial industries. The way of using coal is still using the past combustion methods, and there is no major innovation in coal technology. In 1765, the emergence of the Watt steam engine as a coal prime mover, the United Kingdom really started the transformation to coal, and then spread to the European continent and the United States.
Second, there must be a primary energy structure change based on energy technology innovation. After the emergence of the new “primary motiveâ€, the primary energy used gradually replaces the original energy and eventually becomes the dominant energy source. In other words, alternative energy needs to have the potential to become a dominant energy source. Judging from this criterion, the energy transformation triggered by the invention of windmills and waterwheels by Vaclav Smir does not constitute a national-level energy transformation.
The third is to have a profound transformation of the energy system. That is to say, based on the new energy utilization method (primary motive), the replacement and conversion of primary energy must simultaneously build an energy production, consumption and transportation system that matches this energy characteristic, otherwise the energy transformation will be difficult and effective. Advance. Therefore, in terms of current renewable energy transformation, the ability to establish an energy system that matches the characteristics of renewable energy is critical to the success of the transition.
According to these standards to sort out the history of human energy utilization, we can find that from the perspective of the prime mover standard and the primary energy structure change standard, the historical energy transition can be divided into three, namely, the conversion of fuelwood to coal, the transformation of coal to petroleum, and the direction of oil. Natural gas transformation. It is currently in the third stage of energy transformation, that is, the transition from oil to natural gas.
If combined with the transformation of the energy system (the third standard), it will be found that coal, oil and natural gas are both fossil energy, and the common characteristics of their energy production and consumption systems are: mass production, transportation and consumption. In other words, they all belong to a major energy transformation with the same characteristics of the “energy systemâ€.
Human energy use can be divided into two major energy transitions. The first energy transformation is the transformation of plant energy into fossil energy. The second energy transformation is the transformation of fossil energy into renewable energy. There have been some sub-transformations during the two major energy transitions (such as the transition to coal, the transition to wind power, etc.). It is particularly worth noting that natural gas is an important transitional energy source for the second energy transition, not only because it is cleaner than coal and oil, but because it is both centralized and distributed in terms of energy systems.
Three questions: Where is the difficulty in transitioning to renewable energy?
How difficult is it to transform to renewable energy? Where is it difficult? I believe that any relevant government officials, scholars and industry figures can be summarized from different angles. I believe that the transition to renewable energy has at least the following "three difficulties":
First, there is a huge contrast between the necessity, urgency and economic feasibility of developing renewable energy. The replacement of plant energy by fossil energy is not only a substitute for high-density energy for low-density energy, but also a substitute for highly competitive energy for low-competitive energy, mainly as a product of market competition. The current transformation of renewable energy in various countries takes place under the background of “responding to climate change†becoming the mainstream international value, and is the energy transformation driven by carbon emission reduction policies. Therefore, the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy is the substitution of low-density energy for high-density energy in order to achieve the “decarbonization†of economic growth under the condition that fossil energy itself has great potential for improvement. Low-competitive energy alternatives to highly competitive energy sources. The huge contrast between the urgency, necessity and economic viability of this transformation is the fundamental source of problems in the development of renewable energy.
Second, the “new†energy system that matches the characteristics of renewable energy cannot be obtained through the “extrapolation development†of existing energy systems. One is closely related to the large-scale production, consumption and transportation systems of fossil fuels and their high energy density, storability and uneven distribution. The wide distribution of wind energy and solar energy, low energy density and non-storability determine local production. Local consumption patterns are a better choice, and existing energy systems must be transformed to adapt to the new characteristics of renewable energy. However, existing energy systems that are fully coupled with fossil energy characteristics do not consciously transform to an energy system that adapts to the characteristics of renewable energy, because traditional energy companies tend to consciously hinder this process in their short-term interests.
Third, a single species of renewable energy, whether it is hydro, wind, solar, or biomass, does not have the potential to become a single dominant energy source. Therefore, the transition to renewable energy is based on the overall collection of multiple varieties. The technical characteristics of these different renewable energy varieties are not exactly the same: hydropower is basically compatible with existing energy systems, wind and solar energy are more suitable for distributed and low power, and biomass energy is distributed and centralized. To integrate these energy use technologies into an organic “new†energy system will face more technical, organizational and institutional complexities.
The above-mentioned "three difficulties" can also be said to be new features and new changes in energy transformation. This puts higher demands on the energy transformation policy: on the one hand, the transition policy should be more systematic and forward-looking; on the other hand, the energy system and policy implementation methods should be adjusted accordingly to adapt to these new features and changes. To alleviate the cost and pain of energy transformation.
Four questions: How do you know the experience of German energy transformation?
Germany is a model of the current global energy transformation, and its practice of developing renewable energy has also been used as an “experience†for countries to learn from. For example, renewable energy full-line access, fixed electricity prices (FIT), investment subsidies and other policies have become the standard option for renewable energy development policies in many countries, including China. Needless to say about this. Here I will point out two "experiences" of German energy transformation that are rarely mentioned, but are actually more valuable to China:
First, enhancing the flexibility of the power market is the most important institutional condition for dealing with the volatility of renewable power. The German power reform began in 1998, but in a few short years, it realized the "opening the two, controlling the middle" power market system structure, and established a power supply side and demand side competitive market. The core elements include: the retail side of the power retail, the end users can freely choose the seller; the right to use the grid, the grid operator does not participate in the market competition; the market structure of the spot market and the multi-level FM auxiliary service market in the day before and during the day ,and many more. Germany's renewable energy transformation has been able to advance relatively smoothly so far, and the market flexibility determined by the competitive power market and its supporting mechanisms is the basic institutional condition. From the experience, the construction of this system is a necessary condition for China and other countries to promote the transformation of renewable energy.
In recent years, with the increase in the share of renewable energy power, Germany has designed some new market systems to further increase market flexibility: First, it has established a balance mechanism based on balanced settlement units, and its associated independent frequency modulation. market. Balanced power generation operators (settlement units) that cannot maintain the balance of power generation and power consumption in the region must purchase FM peak-regulated power from the grid company, while allowing FM supply and demand to be independently auctioned. Second, the Energy Change White Paper released at the end of 2015. It proposes a series of measures to improve the flexibility of the electricity market, including: allowing ultra-high price and negative electricity price in a short period of time, allowing more types of technology to participate in the FM auxiliary service market, and so on. A more flexible electricity market system can more accurately reflect the time and space value of electricity, and market participants can respond in a timely manner.
The second is to start from the various aspects of power generation, power grid and power consumption, and improve the overall flexibility of power system operation to cope with the challenges of renewable power fluctuations. Specific practices include: further improving the flexibility of fossil energy power plants to improve their peaking capacity, rather than expanding the scale to reduce energy consumption; changing the operation mode of hotspot cogeneration plants and biomass power plants to increase their flexibility; The role of "indirect energy storage system" to improve the flexibility of the German transmission network; comprehensive use of energy storage, heat pumps, electric vehicles, smart meters and other technical means to improve the load adjustability, increase power demand side flexibility, and so on.
Five questions: What is the top priority for China's renewable energy transformation?
What are the problems facing China's renewable energy transformation? Is the proportion of renewable energy too low? Is the subsidy insufficient? The grid is not guaranteed? These issues are not "immediate priorities." The following matters or principles should be prioritized:
The first is to establish a national strategy for the transformation of renewable energy in China. The national strategy for renewable energy transformation should reflect the characteristics of renewable energy and fully consider the basic national conditions of our country. Although the energy transformation direction of each country is similar, the energy resource endowment and governance structure are different, which determines the country difference of energy transformation.
China’s energy transformation is far from rising at the “national strategy†level. First of all, China's energy transformation is in the respective stages of the various ministries, and each department decides its own focus, direction and speed on its own field. Second, China's energy transformation lacks clear strategic arrangements, and the implementation path and speed of advancement are also lacking in overall consideration. Finally, there is no scientific assessment and assessment of the progress of energy transformation and the implementation of policies. The policy has been introduced a lot, and there are many problems in energy transformation, but few departments can come forward to correct and improve. The solution of these problems depends on the establishment and implementation of the “national strategy†for China's energy transformation.
Second, the current energy system reform should fully reflect the direction and requirements of energy transformation. The problem of China's energy system restraining the market has led to a problem of low allocation efficiency. Vigorously promoting energy market reform has become the direction and requirement of energy system reform. Moreover, the experience of German energy transformation tells us that competitive electricity markets and flexible trading mechanisms are the most important institutional conditions for renewable energy transformation. Therefore, the slowness of energy market reform will not only affect the efficiency of energy allocation, but also hinder the process of China's renewable energy transformation and increase the cost of transformation.
Third, the progress and steps of China's energy transformation should not be determined by traditional energy giants. Traditional energy giants must be major players in energy transformation, but the direction and progress of energy transformation cannot be dominated by traditional fossil energy giants such as power companies. Because they can derive economic benefits from slowing the pace and process of energy transformation. As Herman Hill pointed out in his book Energy Transformation: The Ultimate Challenge, “Objectively, it is impossible to achieve a win-win situation in the transition to renewable energy. One hundred percent turned to renewable energy is industry. The most extensive economic transformation since the times. If there are no winners and losers in this process, it is unbelievable. The losers will inevitably be the traditional power industry, and the extent of its loss depends on its insight, determination and ability, and its thoroughness. Restructuring, facing a rapidly declining market share, and discovering new business areas."
If China's energy system is to be transformed according to the direction and logic of energy transformation, it must be based on the establishment of a national strategy for energy transition, supporting the systemic legal and policy framework for promoting energy transformation, and the country will lead and promote transformation. It is possible to avoid the situation in which energy transitions and rhythms are dominated by traditional fossil energy giants.
The fourth is to adjust the current investment based on the direction of energy transformation to avoid the locking effect. The energy system for the next 30 to 50 years is determined by current investments. The current energy investment should meet the requirements of energy transformation, otherwise it will lead to the future energy system (power system) of China locked in the established road and increase the cost of future energy system transformation.
China's current energy investment focus should be on “new business†for renewable and clean energy and energy infrastructure investment in the development of “new participants†in the market, including intelligent two-way transformation of distribution and power generation to renewable Energy-based microgrid construction, as well as technology and facility investment that is conducive to improving the flexibility of the power system, rather than building an “UHV backbone network†or even a “global energy Internet†for long-distance transmission of electricity.
Related Reading: Theoretical Thinking on Current Energy Transformation in China In recent years, under the background of coping with global climate change becoming an international mainstream issue, energy transformation with the focus on vigorously developing renewable energy to replace fossil energy has become the energy policy of many countries. important content. However, ambitious development goals are difficult to cover up the difficult process of energy transition. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the current development of renewable energy in China under the multiple target constraints, in order to facilitate the smooth advancement of China's energy transformation in the future.
At present, the difficulty and complexity of China's energy transformation is unprecedented. Compared with other major economies and energy-consuming countries in the world, the difficulty and complexity of China's energy transformation may be the first. In general, there are four difficulties in China's energy transformation:
First, energy consumption is large. China has become the world's largest energy consumer. According to BP World Energy Statistics, in 2014, China's primary energy consumption was 2.972 billion tons of oil equivalent, equivalent to 9.6 times in Germany, 6.5 times in Japan, and 15.8 times in the United Kingdom.
Second, the total energy consumption is still in an increasing stage. China's industrialization and urbanization have not been completed, and the total energy consumption has continued to grow within a certain period of time. In contrast, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and other Post-industrial countries have entered a phase of declining total energy consumption.
Third, the energy consumption structure is unreasonable. Coal accounted for a very high proportion. In 2014, coal accounted for 66% of China's primary energy consumption, second only to South Africa (70.6%), more than twice the world average (30%); and as a “clean energy†Natural gas accounts for a very low proportion of only 5.6%, one of the lowest in the world, and the world average is 23.7%.
Fourth, carbon emission reduction pressure is high and time is tight. In 2014, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 9.76 billion tons, ranking first in the world. From 2000 to 2014, carbon dioxide emissions grew at an average annual rate of 7.6%. In the November 2014 Joint Statement on Climate Change between China and the United States, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030. Although the growth rate of carbon emissions has accelerated in recent years (average annual growth rate of emissions from 2009 to 2014 is 4%), it is only 15 to 6 years from the current positive growth to zero growth. In short, regardless of the magnitude of energy, the growth of energy demand, or the energy structure and carbon emission reduction targets, China's energy transformation will face unprecedented challenges that are unimaginable in other countries.
The main obstacles affecting the current energy transformation in China The above-mentioned "four difficulties" will certainly increase the difficulty of China's energy transformation, but this is not the main obstacle affecting the correct advancement of China's energy transformation. At present, the primary obstacle to China's energy transformation lies in the tendency of the industry, the theoretical community and the actual operational departments to have a simple and stylized understanding of energy transition. Under the influence of this thinking and concept, the obstacles affecting China's transition to renewable energy are mainly manifested in three aspects:
First, the energy transition has been simplified to simply “increasing the share of renewable energyâ€. The promotion of energy transformation has also been simply attributed to the government’s “determinationâ€. It seems that as long as the government’s policies are strong and subsidies are in place, energy transformation can success. But in fact, huge subsidies have become an unbearable burden for the government. For example, Germany has become a “model student†for the transition to renewable energy, and the scale of renewable energy subsidies is very large. According to relevant scholars, in 2013 alone, Germany's direct subsidies for renewable energy reached 18 billion euros. In 2013, the German Minister of the Environment said that if the scale of the project is not contracted, the “green revolution†in Germany will cost 1 trillion euros in the next 20 years (excluding the hundreds of billions of euros already spent). Siemens estimates that the direct cost of the energy transition policy by 2050 will reach $4.5 trillion, equivalent to 2.5% of Germany's 50-year GDP. So recently, the domestic industry set off a debate about whether China's development of renewable energy can afford high subsidies.
Second, the current mainstream view tends to regard the cost competitiveness of renewable energy as a key issue for the transition to renewable energy. It is believed that as wind power and photovoltaic power generation costs are further reduced to compete with conventional energy sources, they will face the development of renewable energy. The problem is solved. However, the key issue in the transition to renewable energy is not a cost issue. The main problem of energy transition in Germany is not caused by the high cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. In fact, the cost of onshore wind power with good wind resources is now sufficient to compete with fossil fuel power plants. Under the consideration of the external cost of fossil energy, the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is already lower than the cost of fossil fuel power generation. Of course, there is currently no country in the world that establishes a “full cost†electricity trading market, but this shows that wind power and photovoltaic power generation already have the technical and cost base to compete with fossil fuels.
Third, the long-term and complex nature of energy transition has not been properly understood and adequately addressed. Most of the energy transformation in human history has gone through quite a long time: coal has replaced fuelwood as the dominant energy source for about 140 years, and oil has surpassed coal to become the dominant energy source for about 90 years. Due to the limitations of energy density, resource location, and conversion efficiency of resource utilization, renewable energy is destined to take longer to replace fossil energy. For example, from the beginning of the 1970s, France began to use hydroelectric turbines to generate electricity. Today, after more than 130 years, hydropower has only accounted for about 6% of global primary energy consumption. Since the wind turbines generated electricity in the 1930s and photovoltaic power generation in the 1960s, wind power and photovoltaic power generation have only a little more than 2% of the global primary energy. However, in practice, this long-term and complex nature of energy transformation has not become a driving force for us to comprehensively and in-depth study of energy transformation. Instead, it has been delayed by the market players who are unwilling to promote energy transformation.
It can be argued that the lack of in-depth research and deep understanding of the specific historical process of energy transformation leads to a simple understanding of energy transformation, which in turn leads to the lack of strategic thinking in China's current energy transformation practice, and the policy response cannot grasp the main contradictions, resulting in “headachesâ€. The medical head is even an important reason for "headaches."
A complete understanding of the connotation of energy transformation is the premise of effectively promoting transformation. In short, energy transformation usually represents the replacement of primary energy. “New†energy replaces “old†energy, such as coal instead of fuelwood, oil instead of coal, and The ongoing replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy. However, the increase in the “new†energy share is only a shallow manifestation of energy transition, or just a natural consequence of a successful energy transition. For a country, a complete understanding of the connotation of energy transformation is the prerequisite for establishing a correct energy transformation strategy and the smooth transition of energy transformation. Starting from the current background of global energy transformation, we should at least understand the energy transformation that many countries are currently advancing from the following three aspects:
First of all, energy transformation is not just about increasing the proportion of renewable energy or non-fossil energy in the existing energy system, but more importantly, having structural changes in the energy system. In other words, existing energy systems that are fully coupled with fossil energy characteristics, especially power systems, must be transformed to accommodate the distributed, low-power characteristics of renewable energy. Without an energy system, especially for the adaptive transformation of the power system, there is limited room for the existing energy system to accommodate the development of renewable energy. The rapid growth of German renewable energy for more than a decade, in addition to the well-known strong support of government policies, is mandatory for law enforcement companies to adapt to the development of renewable energy. It can be seen that the transformation of the energy system as a core requirement of energy transformation can accurately and objectively understand the correct way and real space for the development of renewable energy.
Second, each energy transformation involves the re-adjustment of interest relationships, which will result in losers and winners. As oil gradually replaced coal, oil suppliers and related companies rose, and some coal suppliers and related companies closed down. With the deepening of renewable energy alternatives to fossil energy, competition between renewable energy companies and fossil energy companies will become increasingly fierce. Under this circumstance, if the government cannot correctly grasp the general direction of energy transformation and the resulting adjustment of interest relations, or be lobbied by the “old energy†group, it may introduce policies that hinder energy transformation. For example, in the early 19th century, when the Dutch traditional dominant energy “peat†consumption status was threatened by imported coal with higher calorific value, the Dutch government adopted various measures, including the imposition of coal import tariffs, to protect the domestic peat industry. As a result, this not only delayed the transition of the Dutch energy system to coal, but also worsened the already declining Dutch economy.
Finally, there must be a clear understanding and sufficient attention to the long-term and complex nature of current energy transitions. From the history of energy transition, it takes decades or even hundreds of years for one energy to replace another and gain a dominant position. The current energy transformation, the main content is the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy. In a broad sense, it can also be said that non-fossil energy substitutes for fossil energy. Compared with the historical energy transition, its long-term and complexity are superior.
In the long run, renewable energy, as the main energy source of alternative energy, has no advantage over the replaced fossil energy, whether it is energy density or utilization cost. From the perspective of complexity, renewable energy is a collection of multiple varieties, and none of them has the potential to become a single dominant energy source. Moreover, the technical characteristics of these renewable energy varieties are not identical. Hydropower is basically compatible with existing energy systems. Wind and solar energy are more suitable for distributed and low power, and biomass energy is distributed and centralized. To integrate these energy use technologies into an organic “new†energy system will face more technical, organizational and institutional complexities. In this regard, the government's policy formulation and implementation departments should attach great importance to it.
However, the contrast between the “necessity†of renewable energy development and “economic feasibilityâ€, the obstruction of renewable energy development by traditional energy interest groups, the intentional or unintentional misinterpretation of the development path, determines the alternative fossils of renewable energy. The road to energy will be tortuous, difficult and repetitive.
In our country, a more intense contrast is: on the one hand, we “extremely attach importance to†renewable energy development, and continue to introduce policies to support the development of renewable energy; on the other hand, the appropriate way to turn to the existing energy system Research on energy systems based on “renewable energy is “highly neglectedâ€. The lack of basic research and systematic thinking on how to transform renewable energy leads to the policy that the system promotes energy transformation is “independent†in practice, and evolves to achieve a certain “established shareâ€.
Put renewable energy development into the historical process of human energy transformation, explore the basic connotation and motivation of energy transformation, sort out the logic of energy transformation, systematically analyze the similarities and differences between renewable energy transformation and historical energy transformation, and correctly understand China's renewable The problems and transformation methods in energy development are not only theoretically necessary but also practically important.
One question: How does energy transformation occur? Many reports and papers equate the term “energy transition†with “transformation to renewable energy†or “low carbon transformationâ€. This meaning may come at first from a report published by the German Academy of Sciences in 1980: "Energy Transformation: No Growth and Prosperity of Oil and Uranium." The report’s call for a total abandonment of nuclear power and petroleum energy was strongly opposed, but it gradually evolved into the basic content of German energy policy after entering the 21st century. Correspondingly, the meaning of the German “energy transition†has gradually evolved into “turning to distributed renewable energy and improving energy efficiency†and declared that the ultimate goal is to establish a 100% renewable energy-based energy system.
The meaning of energy transformation is of course not just the development of renewable energy. In a more general sense, energy transformation is often understood as a process of conversion or replacement of a country or society-led energy source. For example, coal replaces fuelwood and becomes the dominant energy source, and oil replaces coal as the dominant energy source. However, this descriptive understanding of energy transition, and related research based on this understanding, is difficult to adapt to the needs of complex and rich energy transformation practices and does not provide insight into current energy transitions.
American natural gas expert Robert Hefner III tried to find another way. In his 2009 book, The Great Transformation of Energy, Robert Hefner III has three physical forms of energy, namely solids (wood, coal, etc.), liquids (oil) and gases (natural gas, wind, solar). Starting from hydrogen energy, the history and future of human energy utilization are summarized as two energy transformations: the first energy transformation is the transformation of solid energy into liquid energy, and the second energy transformation is the transformation of liquid energy into gas energy. This view has theoretical abstraction and logical consistency, which provides a valuable observational perspective for us to understand the direction of energy transformation. However, this theory is too abstract for the judgment criteria of energy transition, and lacks in-depth research on the connotation and characteristics of energy transition. There is limited effect on understanding how energy is transformed.
Professor Vaclav Smil of Canada believes that energy transformation is a process of changing energy structure driven by various energy use “prime moversâ€. “Every time the more efficient new energy prime mover replaces the old prime mover, it significantly increases the amount of energy that humans can use, and energy transformation will happen.â€
Professor Smir divides human energy utilization into four energy transformations according to the “primary motive standardâ€: the first energy transformation takes place between 10,000 and 5,000 years ago, and humans replace some of the manpower through domesticated animals; the second energy transformation takes place. In the 1000 BC, the emergence of windmills and waterwheels further replaced the muscles of humans and animals; the third energy transformation started with the expansion of steam after the improvement of the steam engine in 1765, and further improved the energy transformation of coal instead of fuelwood. process. The fourth energy transformation took place along with the invention of the generator, and in 1882 the world's first central power station was put into use in New York and London, and humans entered the era of electrification.
Professor Smir's "original invention, improvement and diffusion" logic provides us with very illuminating insights into the history of energy transition "when it happens" and "how it happens." However, a review of the history of human energy use reveals that there are at least two problems in determining energy transitions with a single criterion of “primary motivesâ€:
First, some energy transitions from the prime mover standards have not really led to the ultimate energy becoming the “dominant energy†and thus do not constitute an energy transition at the human society or at the national level. For example, in the 1000 BC, with the appearance of windmills and waterwheels, wind power and water energy did not become the dominant energy source in the general range, let alone the world. This is due to the limitations of wind and water energy, and has nothing to do with the efficiency of the prime mover. The second is the fourth energy transformation triggered by the emergence of “generatorsâ€. It deviates from the logic of “primary energy†and enters secondary energy (electrification). This transformation has contradictions and conflicts with the current development of clean and low carbonization. This is because the “primer†efficiency and energy level of fossil fuel power generation will further enhance the competitiveness of fossil fuels, which is not conducive to the transition to clean fuels. Therefore, the value and significance of any non-primary energy technology revolution for “energy transformation†must be returned to the “source†of the primary energy it depends on.
In order to better describe the logic of historical energy transformation and explain the future energy transformation, the author defines energy transformation as: the energy transformation is driven by the prime mover, accompanied by the profound changes in the energy system, the long-term change process of the primary energy structure. The occurrence and deepening of energy transformation is due to the development and development of a “primitive motive†that can transform the energy transformation at the national and even global levels, just as the history of steam engines is for coal, and for internal combustion engines for oil. same.
Second question: At what stage is China's energy transformation?
At what stage is China's energy transformation, and the next energy transformation is the first transformation? The answer to the different criteria for energy transition is different. Based on the above new definition of energy transition, at the national level, energy transition should meet three criteria:
First, there must be “technical innovation†or “primary motives†that lead to major changes in energy use patterns. Energy transformation is not a simple “accumulation†of the use of “new†energy varieties. Coal in the medieval British cities is very common. By the early 18th century, not only was the home heating in the UK, but coal was used in many industrial industries. The way of using coal is still using the past combustion methods, and there is no major innovation in coal technology. In 1765, the emergence of the Watt steam engine as a coal prime mover, the United Kingdom really started the transformation to coal, and then spread to the European continent and the United States.
Second, there must be a primary energy structure change based on energy technology innovation. After the emergence of the new “primary motiveâ€, the primary energy used gradually replaces the original energy and eventually becomes the dominant energy source. In other words, alternative energy needs to have the potential to become a dominant energy source. Judging from this criterion, the energy transformation triggered by the invention of windmills and waterwheels by Vaclav Smir does not constitute a national-level energy transformation.
The third is to have a profound transformation of the energy system. That is to say, based on the new energy utilization method (primary motive), the replacement and conversion of primary energy must simultaneously build an energy production, consumption and transportation system that matches this energy characteristic, otherwise the energy transformation will be difficult and effective. Advance. Therefore, in terms of current renewable energy transformation, the ability to establish an energy system that matches the characteristics of renewable energy is critical to the success of the transition.
According to these standards to sort out the history of human energy utilization, we can find that from the perspective of the prime mover standard and the primary energy structure change standard, the historical energy transition can be divided into three, namely, the conversion of fuelwood to coal, the transformation of coal to petroleum, and the direction of oil. Natural gas transformation. It is currently in the third stage of energy transformation, that is, the transition from oil to natural gas.
If combined with the transformation of the energy system (the third standard), it will be found that coal, oil and natural gas are both fossil energy, and the common characteristics of their energy production and consumption systems are: mass production, transportation and consumption. In other words, they all belong to a major energy transformation with the same characteristics of the “energy systemâ€.
Human energy use can be divided into two major energy transitions. The first energy transformation is the transformation of plant energy into fossil energy. The second energy transformation is the transformation of fossil energy into renewable energy. There have been some sub-transformations during the two major energy transitions (such as the transition to coal, the transition to wind power, etc.). It is particularly worth noting that natural gas is an important transitional energy source for the second energy transition, not only because it is cleaner than coal and oil, but because it is both centralized and distributed in terms of energy systems.
Three questions: Where is the difficulty in transitioning to renewable energy?
How difficult is it to transform to renewable energy? Where is it difficult? I believe that any relevant government officials, scholars and industry figures can be summarized from different angles. I believe that the transition to renewable energy has at least the following "three difficulties":
First, there is a huge contrast between the necessity, urgency and economic feasibility of developing renewable energy. The replacement of plant energy by fossil energy is not only a substitute for high-density energy for low-density energy, but also a substitute for highly competitive energy for low-competitive energy, mainly as a product of market competition. The current transformation of renewable energy in various countries takes place under the background of “responding to climate change†becoming the mainstream international value, and is the energy transformation driven by carbon emission reduction policies. Therefore, the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy is the substitution of low-density energy for high-density energy in order to achieve the “decarbonization†of economic growth under the condition that fossil energy itself has great potential for improvement. Low-competitive energy alternatives to highly competitive energy sources. The huge contrast between the urgency, necessity and economic viability of this transformation is the fundamental source of problems in the development of renewable energy.
Second, the “new†energy system that matches the characteristics of renewable energy cannot be obtained through the “extrapolation development†of existing energy systems. One is closely related to the large-scale production, consumption and transportation systems of fossil fuels and their high energy density, storability and uneven distribution. The wide distribution of wind energy and solar energy, low energy density and non-storability determine local production. Local consumption patterns are a better choice, and existing energy systems must be transformed to adapt to the new characteristics of renewable energy. However, existing energy systems that are fully coupled with fossil energy characteristics do not consciously transform to an energy system that adapts to the characteristics of renewable energy, because traditional energy companies tend to consciously hinder this process in their short-term interests.
Third, a single species of renewable energy, whether it is hydro, wind, solar, or biomass, does not have the potential to become a single dominant energy source. Therefore, the transition to renewable energy is based on the overall collection of multiple varieties. The technical characteristics of these different renewable energy varieties are not exactly the same: hydropower is basically compatible with existing energy systems, wind and solar energy are more suitable for distributed and low power, and biomass energy is distributed and centralized. To integrate these energy use technologies into an organic “new†energy system will face more technical, organizational and institutional complexities.
The above-mentioned "three difficulties" can also be said to be new features and new changes in energy transformation. This puts higher demands on the energy transformation policy: on the one hand, the transition policy should be more systematic and forward-looking; on the other hand, the energy system and policy implementation methods should be adjusted accordingly to adapt to these new features and changes. To alleviate the cost and pain of energy transformation.
Four questions: How do you know the experience of German energy transformation?
Germany is a model of the current global energy transformation, and its practice of developing renewable energy has also been used as an “experience†for countries to learn from. For example, renewable energy full-line access, fixed electricity prices (FIT), investment subsidies and other policies have become the standard option for renewable energy development policies in many countries, including China. Needless to say about this. Here I will point out two "experiences" of German energy transformation that are rarely mentioned, but are actually more valuable to China:
First, enhancing the flexibility of the power market is the most important institutional condition for dealing with the volatility of renewable power. The German power reform began in 1998, but in a few short years, it realized the "opening the two, controlling the middle" power market system structure, and established a power supply side and demand side competitive market. The core elements include: the retail side of the power retail, the end users can freely choose the seller; the right to use the grid, the grid operator does not participate in the market competition; the market structure of the spot market and the multi-level FM auxiliary service market in the day before and during the day ,and many more. Germany's renewable energy transformation has been able to advance relatively smoothly so far, and the market flexibility determined by the competitive power market and its supporting mechanisms is the basic institutional condition. From the experience, the construction of this system is a necessary condition for China and other countries to promote the transformation of renewable energy.
In recent years, with the increase in the share of renewable energy power, Germany has designed some new market systems to further increase market flexibility: First, it has established a balance mechanism based on balanced settlement units, and its associated independent frequency modulation. market. Balanced power generation operators (settlement units) that cannot maintain the balance of power generation and power consumption in the region must purchase FM peak-regulated power from the grid company, while allowing FM supply and demand to be independently auctioned. Second, the Energy Change White Paper released at the end of 2015. It proposes a series of measures to improve the flexibility of the electricity market, including: allowing ultra-high price and negative electricity price in a short period of time, allowing more types of technology to participate in the FM auxiliary service market, and so on. A more flexible electricity market system can more accurately reflect the time and space value of electricity, and market participants can respond in a timely manner.
The second is to start from the various aspects of power generation, power grid and power consumption, and improve the overall flexibility of power system operation to cope with the challenges of renewable power fluctuations. Specific practices include: further improving the flexibility of fossil energy power plants to improve their peaking capacity, rather than expanding the scale to reduce energy consumption; changing the operation mode of hotspot cogeneration plants and biomass power plants to increase their flexibility; The role of "indirect energy storage system" to improve the flexibility of the German transmission network; comprehensive use of energy storage, heat pumps, electric vehicles, smart meters and other technical means to improve the load adjustability, increase power demand side flexibility, and so on.
Five questions: What is the top priority for China's renewable energy transformation?
What are the problems facing China's renewable energy transformation? Is the proportion of renewable energy too low? Is the subsidy insufficient? The grid is not guaranteed? These issues are not "immediate priorities." The following matters or principles should be prioritized:
The first is to establish a national strategy for the transformation of renewable energy in China. The national strategy for renewable energy transformation should reflect the characteristics of renewable energy and fully consider the basic national conditions of our country. Although the energy transformation direction of each country is similar, the energy resource endowment and governance structure are different, which determines the country difference of energy transformation.
China’s energy transformation is far from rising at the “national strategy†level. First of all, China's energy transformation is in the respective stages of the various ministries, and each department decides its own focus, direction and speed on its own field. Second, China's energy transformation lacks clear strategic arrangements, and the implementation path and speed of advancement are also lacking in overall consideration. Finally, there is no scientific assessment and assessment of the progress of energy transformation and the implementation of policies. The policy has been introduced a lot, and there are many problems in energy transformation, but few departments can come forward to correct and improve. The solution of these problems depends on the establishment and implementation of the “national strategy†for China's energy transformation.
Second, the current energy system reform should fully reflect the direction and requirements of energy transformation. The problem of China's energy system restraining the market has led to a problem of low allocation efficiency. Vigorously promoting energy market reform has become the direction and requirement of energy system reform. Moreover, the experience of German energy transformation tells us that competitive electricity markets and flexible trading mechanisms are the most important institutional conditions for renewable energy transformation. Therefore, the slowness of energy market reform will not only affect the efficiency of energy allocation, but also hinder the process of China's renewable energy transformation and increase the cost of transformation.
Third, the progress and steps of China's energy transformation should not be determined by traditional energy giants. Traditional energy giants must be major players in energy transformation, but the direction and progress of energy transformation cannot be dominated by traditional fossil energy giants such as power companies. Because they can derive economic benefits from slowing the pace and process of energy transformation. As Herman Hill pointed out in his book Energy Transformation: The Ultimate Challenge, “Objectively, it is impossible to achieve a win-win situation in the transition to renewable energy. One hundred percent turned to renewable energy is industry. The most extensive economic transformation since the times. If there are no winners and losers in this process, it is unbelievable. The losers will inevitably be the traditional power industry, and the extent of its loss depends on its insight, determination and ability, and its thoroughness. Restructuring, facing a rapidly declining market share, and discovering new business areas."
If China's energy system is to be transformed according to the direction and logic of energy transformation, it must be based on the establishment of a national strategy for energy transition, supporting the systemic legal and policy framework for promoting energy transformation, and the country will lead and promote transformation. It is possible to avoid the situation in which energy transitions and rhythms are dominated by traditional fossil energy giants.
The fourth is to adjust the current investment based on the direction of energy transformation to avoid the locking effect. The energy system for the next 30 to 50 years is determined by current investments. The current energy investment should meet the requirements of energy transformation, otherwise it will lead to the future energy system (power system) of China locked in the established road and increase the cost of future energy system transformation.
China's current energy investment focus should be on “new business†for renewable and clean energy and energy infrastructure investment in the development of “new participants†in the market, including intelligent two-way transformation of distribution and power generation to renewable Energy-based microgrid construction, as well as technology and facility investment that is conducive to improving the flexibility of the power system, rather than building an “UHV backbone network†or even a “global energy Internet†for long-distance transmission of electricity.
Related Reading: Theoretical Thinking on Current Energy Transformation in China In recent years, under the background of coping with global climate change becoming an international mainstream issue, energy transformation with the focus on vigorously developing renewable energy to replace fossil energy has become the energy policy of many countries. important content. However, ambitious development goals are difficult to cover up the difficult process of energy transition. Under this circumstance, it is necessary to deeply reflect on the current development of renewable energy in China under the multiple target constraints, in order to facilitate the smooth advancement of China's energy transformation in the future.
At present, the difficulty and complexity of China's energy transformation is unprecedented. Compared with other major economies and energy-consuming countries in the world, the difficulty and complexity of China's energy transformation may be the first. In general, there are four difficulties in China's energy transformation:
First, energy consumption is large. China has become the world's largest energy consumer. According to BP World Energy Statistics, in 2014, China's primary energy consumption was 2.972 billion tons of oil equivalent, equivalent to 9.6 times in Germany, 6.5 times in Japan, and 15.8 times in the United Kingdom.
Second, the total energy consumption is still in an increasing stage. China's industrialization and urbanization have not been completed, and the total energy consumption has continued to grow within a certain period of time. In contrast, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and other Post-industrial countries have entered a phase of declining total energy consumption.
Third, the energy consumption structure is unreasonable. Coal accounted for a very high proportion. In 2014, coal accounted for 66% of China's primary energy consumption, second only to South Africa (70.6%), more than twice the world average (30%); and as a “clean energy†Natural gas accounts for a very low proportion of only 5.6%, one of the lowest in the world, and the world average is 23.7%.
Fourth, carbon emission reduction pressure is high and time is tight. In 2014, China's carbon dioxide emissions were 9.76 billion tons, ranking first in the world. From 2000 to 2014, carbon dioxide emissions grew at an average annual rate of 7.6%. In the November 2014 Joint Statement on Climate Change between China and the United States, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030. Although the growth rate of carbon emissions has accelerated in recent years (average annual growth rate of emissions from 2009 to 2014 is 4%), it is only 15 to 6 years from the current positive growth to zero growth. In short, regardless of the magnitude of energy, the growth of energy demand, or the energy structure and carbon emission reduction targets, China's energy transformation will face unprecedented challenges that are unimaginable in other countries.
The main obstacles affecting the current energy transformation in China The above-mentioned "four difficulties" will certainly increase the difficulty of China's energy transformation, but this is not the main obstacle affecting the correct advancement of China's energy transformation. At present, the primary obstacle to China's energy transformation lies in the tendency of the industry, the theoretical community and the actual operational departments to have a simple and stylized understanding of energy transition. Under the influence of this thinking and concept, the obstacles affecting China's transition to renewable energy are mainly manifested in three aspects:
First, the energy transition has been simplified to simply “increasing the share of renewable energyâ€. The promotion of energy transformation has also been simply attributed to the government’s “determinationâ€. It seems that as long as the government’s policies are strong and subsidies are in place, energy transformation can success. But in fact, huge subsidies have become an unbearable burden for the government. For example, Germany has become a “model student†for the transition to renewable energy, and the scale of renewable energy subsidies is very large. According to relevant scholars, in 2013 alone, Germany's direct subsidies for renewable energy reached 18 billion euros. In 2013, the German Minister of the Environment said that if the scale of the project is not contracted, the “green revolution†in Germany will cost 1 trillion euros in the next 20 years (excluding the hundreds of billions of euros already spent). Siemens estimates that the direct cost of the energy transition policy by 2050 will reach $4.5 trillion, equivalent to 2.5% of Germany's 50-year GDP. So recently, the domestic industry set off a debate about whether China's development of renewable energy can afford high subsidies.
Second, the current mainstream view tends to regard the cost competitiveness of renewable energy as a key issue for the transition to renewable energy. It is believed that as wind power and photovoltaic power generation costs are further reduced to compete with conventional energy sources, they will face the development of renewable energy. The problem is solved. However, the key issue in the transition to renewable energy is not a cost issue. The main problem of energy transition in Germany is not caused by the high cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. In fact, the cost of onshore wind power with good wind resources is now sufficient to compete with fossil fuel power plants. Under the consideration of the external cost of fossil energy, the cost of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is already lower than the cost of fossil fuel power generation. Of course, there is currently no country in the world that establishes a “full cost†electricity trading market, but this shows that wind power and photovoltaic power generation already have the technical and cost base to compete with fossil fuels.
Third, the long-term and complex nature of energy transition has not been properly understood and adequately addressed. Most of the energy transformation in human history has gone through quite a long time: coal has replaced fuelwood as the dominant energy source for about 140 years, and oil has surpassed coal to become the dominant energy source for about 90 years. Due to the limitations of energy density, resource location, and conversion efficiency of resource utilization, renewable energy is destined to take longer to replace fossil energy. For example, from the beginning of the 1970s, France began to use hydroelectric turbines to generate electricity. Today, after more than 130 years, hydropower has only accounted for about 6% of global primary energy consumption. Since the wind turbines generated electricity in the 1930s and photovoltaic power generation in the 1960s, wind power and photovoltaic power generation have only a little more than 2% of the global primary energy. However, in practice, this long-term and complex nature of energy transformation has not become a driving force for us to comprehensively and in-depth study of energy transformation. Instead, it has been delayed by the market players who are unwilling to promote energy transformation.
It can be argued that the lack of in-depth research and deep understanding of the specific historical process of energy transformation leads to a simple understanding of energy transformation, which in turn leads to the lack of strategic thinking in China's current energy transformation practice, and the policy response cannot grasp the main contradictions, resulting in “headachesâ€. The medical head is even an important reason for "headaches."
A complete understanding of the connotation of energy transformation is the premise of effectively promoting transformation. In short, energy transformation usually represents the replacement of primary energy. “New†energy replaces “old†energy, such as coal instead of fuelwood, oil instead of coal, and The ongoing replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy. However, the increase in the “new†energy share is only a shallow manifestation of energy transition, or just a natural consequence of a successful energy transition. For a country, a complete understanding of the connotation of energy transformation is the prerequisite for establishing a correct energy transformation strategy and the smooth transition of energy transformation. Starting from the current background of global energy transformation, we should at least understand the energy transformation that many countries are currently advancing from the following three aspects:
First of all, energy transformation is not just about increasing the proportion of renewable energy or non-fossil energy in the existing energy system, but more importantly, having structural changes in the energy system. In other words, existing energy systems that are fully coupled with fossil energy characteristics, especially power systems, must be transformed to accommodate the distributed, low-power characteristics of renewable energy. Without an energy system, especially for the adaptive transformation of the power system, there is limited room for the existing energy system to accommodate the development of renewable energy. The rapid growth of German renewable energy for more than a decade, in addition to the well-known strong support of government policies, is mandatory for law enforcement companies to adapt to the development of renewable energy. It can be seen that the transformation of the energy system as a core requirement of energy transformation can accurately and objectively understand the correct way and real space for the development of renewable energy.
Second, each energy transformation involves the re-adjustment of interest relationships, which will result in losers and winners. As oil gradually replaced coal, oil suppliers and related companies rose, and some coal suppliers and related companies closed down. With the deepening of renewable energy alternatives to fossil energy, competition between renewable energy companies and fossil energy companies will become increasingly fierce. Under this circumstance, if the government cannot correctly grasp the general direction of energy transformation and the resulting adjustment of interest relations, or be lobbied by the “old energy†group, it may introduce policies that hinder energy transformation. For example, in the early 19th century, when the Dutch traditional dominant energy “peat†consumption status was threatened by imported coal with higher calorific value, the Dutch government adopted various measures, including the imposition of coal import tariffs, to protect the domestic peat industry. As a result, this not only delayed the transition of the Dutch energy system to coal, but also worsened the already declining Dutch economy.
Finally, there must be a clear understanding and sufficient attention to the long-term and complex nature of current energy transitions. From the history of energy transition, it takes decades or even hundreds of years for one energy to replace another and gain a dominant position. The current energy transformation, the main content is the replacement of fossil energy by renewable energy. In a broad sense, it can also be said that non-fossil energy substitutes for fossil energy. Compared with the historical energy transition, its long-term and complexity are superior.
In the long run, renewable energy, as the main energy source of alternative energy, has no advantage over the replaced fossil energy, whether it is energy density or utilization cost. From the perspective of complexity, renewable energy is a collection of multiple varieties, and none of them has the potential to become a single dominant energy source. Moreover, the technical characteristics of these renewable energy varieties are not identical. Hydropower is basically compatible with existing energy systems. Wind and solar energy are more suitable for distributed and low power, and biomass energy is distributed and centralized. To integrate these energy use technologies into an organic “new†energy system will face more technical, organizational and institutional complexities. In this regard, the government's policy formulation and implementation departments should attach great importance to it.
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