First, the industry growth rate slows down and the economy declines.
From January to July 2008, the total industrial output value of the machinery industry was 5,142.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.83%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.78 percentage points from the previous month. From January to July, the sales value of the whole industry was 501.814 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.46%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.58 percentage points from the previous month. From January to July, the total output value and sales value of the machinery industry decreased by 3.63 and 3.02 percentage points respectively compared with the same period of 2007, and the growth rate of the industry slowed down. In 2008, China implemented a tight monetary policy. Although the central bank recently lowered the benchmark lending rate and the commercial bank deposit reserve ratio, we believe that the tightening policy direction will not change much, but there will be some adjustments in the future of domestic machinery. Equipment demand growth will continue to decline. From January to August 2008, new orders in the domestic machinery industry fell sharply year-on-year, with a drop of more than 20%, and the industry's business climate declined.
From January to July 2008, China's machinery industry exports increased by 34.27% year-on-year. The export growth rate of heavy equipment and special equipment was higher than the industry average, indicating that China's equipment manufacturing capacity has been continuously improved. The overall export growth rate of the industry has declined, from 40% at the end of 2007 to around 34%. The appreciation of the renminbi has a greater impact on the less competitive machinery manufacturing industry, and the decline in exports is more obvious. At the same time, global financial turmoil, the future global economy Growth will slow down, China's export product demand will decline, and we expect China's machinery product export growth rate to decline further in the future.
From January to July 2008, China's machinery industry imports increased by 24.55% year-on-year, of which machine tool industry imports increased by only 13.31% year-on-year, while construction machinery and heavy mines were also lower than industry export growth. In 2008, the import of machinery industry showed signs of acceleration. We believe that the acceleration of imports is due to the appreciation of the renminbi. On the other hand, due to the rapid growth of exports (import of parts related to export products), and the import of core components of construction machinery and other products. Overall, the international competitiveness of China's machinery products continues to increase, and construction machinery, machine tools and heavy mining equipment continue to replace imports, and the global market has strong competitiveness.
Second, cost pressure will tend to ease
The decline in the prosperity of the machinery industry has led to a decline in the efficiency of corporate asset operations. At the same time, in the first half of 2008, the country raised the price of electricity and refined oil. The prices of raw materials such as steel and fuel increased, the pressure on enterprises continued to increase, and the profitability of the machinery industry declined. . In July, with the sharp decline in the prices of crude oil, steel, etc., the cost pressure of China's machinery industry will ease in the future.
Third, the industry's production capacity tends to be excessive, and competition will intensify
It can be seen from the investment in urban areas of various industries that the growth rate of general-purpose equipment and special equipment is declining, while electrical machinery, equipment and transportation equipment continue to maintain rapid growth. Due to the rapid expansion of the general equipment and special equipment industry in the past two years, the future will enter the capacity release period, and the investment growth rate will slow down. At the same time, due to the decline in the machinery industry and the decline in demand, the industry's production capacity will tend to be excessive. However, most of China's mechanical products have a higher degree of homogenization, and the entry threshold of products is lower, and industry competition will be further intensified.
Fourth, sub-industry investment strategy
1. Construction machinery industry: cost pressure has eased, but demand growth will decline
(1) Product structure determines the company's growth The cumulative output of concrete machinery and the cumulative output of scraping machinery increased by 54.9% and 25% respectively from January to August 2008. The year-on-year growth rate of forklift production fell sharply in August from January to July. 34.28% fell to 18.9% in January-August, and compaction machinery production continued to shrink year-on-year, from 2.44% in January-July to 5.6% in January-August. In the future, we continue to be optimistic about the growth of concrete machinery and scraping machinery, but the growth rate will fall back, we are cautious about the future prospects of compacting machinery and forklifts.
After the substantial increase in investment in new construction and expansion in 2003, the current fixed assets investment in China's reconstruction projects has grown rapidly. With the continuation of macro tightening policies, we believe that the growth rate of China's fixed asset investment will maintain a steady and declining trend in the future. The growth rate of domestic demand in the machinery industry will also decline, and the growth of different construction machinery products will also be differentiated.
From January to July, sales of loaders and bulldozers increased by more than 20% year-on-year, which is basically consistent with the growth rate of scraper machinery production. The sales growth rate of forklifts dropped sharply in July, and after the explosive growth in the previous two years, the year-on-year growth rate of China's excavator sales gradually returned to reasonable. The growth rate of small excavators was higher than that of excavators. We expect China's excavator sales to maintain growth of around 20% in the future, while small excavators will maintain growth of around 30%.
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