In the 2010 iron ore negotiations, the three major mines successfully implemented quarterly pricing and index pricing, so how will iron ore be priced in the new year's negotiations? Can the “negotiating pricing†model expected by China Steel Association return?
China hopes to return to "negotiating pricing"
Although the three major mines broke the annual iron ore negotiation model, they successfully implemented the quarterly pricing model and developed into index pricing. However, China Steel Association has never given up the "negotiating pricing" model.
According to the Economic Information Daily, Luo Bingsheng said after the meeting that the current contact is still a commercial negotiation between the steel mill and the three major mines, and the China Steel Association coordinates.
Although Luo Bingsheng stressed several times, "the two sides agreed that there should not be too much detail during the negotiation." But what is certain is that, unlike the traditional long-term negotiations, the two sides returned to the negotiating table after nearly a year. Before, the key content of the negotiations will be "Can the current quarterly pricing model return to the long association model?"
Earlier, Luo Bingsheng also made such a statement in several meetings: "In my opinion, the current ore pricing model has not been finalized and is still in the game."
Multiple factors
Although the quarterly pricing model does not work well for a year, it is not easy to return iron ore negotiations to a long track.
On the one hand, the three major mines have an absolute share in the iron ore market. It is difficult for China to have chips to make concessions on the iron ore pricing mechanism. On the other hand, the model of iron ore pricing 'monopoly supply and demand pricing' It is difficult for steel companies to reduce their dependence on iron ore.
In addition, the "injunction" was frequently staged, which also increased the pressure on iron ore importing countries. Indian Steel Minister Verbeira Singh said on October 29 that the country should ban iron ore exports to ensure domestic supply is sufficient. India is the world's third-largest iron ore exporter. If India bans the export of iron ore, it will undoubtedly push up the export prices of iron ore in Australia and Brazil, making the global iron ore market more competitive.
If global iron ore demand will remain “tight†in the near future, it will inevitably affect the iron ore negotiations in the new year. For the Chinese side, the impact of the bargaining chip will be greatly reduced.
The prospects for negotiations are confusing
On the one hand, China wants to return to the “negotiating pricing†model. On the other hand, the three major miners are advocating further “indexation†and “financialization†of the iron ore pricing mechanism. It seems that the pricing model in the new year will be the focus of negotiations.
Although the index was operated for one year and was criticized by many parties, even the three major mines themselves had some differences. BHP Billiton is eager to advance the evolution of pricing; Rio Tinto's attitude is more conservative; Brazil's Vale is trying to maintain its current index pricing model. But to return to the "negotiating pricing" model can be described as difficult.
Although the three major mines currently have an absolute share in the iron ore market, it is difficult for China to have chips to make concessions on the iron ore pricing mechanism. However, if the price of iron ore is further increased, it will most likely fall into the muddy loss of large-scale losses in the whole industry.
In addition, if the iron ore negotiations move toward “financializationâ€, there may be a double loss situation. Because once the spot market is determined by the financial market, mines and steel companies will lose their iron ore pricing power, and financial institutions will participate and become new players.
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