The status quo and development prospects of China's modified plastics industry in 2018

Modified plastics are superior to general-purpose plastics in terms of strength, toughness, flame retardancy and impact resistance. The downstream applications are widely used in home appliances, automobiles, office equipment, machinery and construction, among which home appliances and automobiles are the largest. Two application areas. At present, the automotive industry has become the fastest growing demand for modified plastics. Due to the stable growth of global automobile production and the light weight of automobiles, the use of bicycle modified plastics has increased. It is estimated that the market value of global automotive plastics is expected to increase to US$46.112 billion in 2018, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.46%; consumption is expected to increase. To 11.3 million tons, the annual growth rate is 8.05%.

Chart 1: The scale of global automotive modified plastics market from 2012 to 2018 (unit: billion US dollars)

Chart 2: Global market consumption of modified plastics for vehicles from 2012 to 2018 (unit: 10,000 tons)

The growth rate of domestic automotive modified plastics is much higher than the global average. The growth rate of domestic automobile production has been much higher than the growth rate of global automobile production in the past years. Especially now, China is already the world's largest new energy vehicle market. New energy vehicles need more support from lightweight technology, so domestic vehicles are used. The demand for modified plastics will increase faster than the global average and become the fastest growing area for modified plastics. In 2017, China produced a total of 794,000 new energy vehicles. Combined with an average of 171 kilograms of modified plastics per passenger vehicle, it is conservatively estimated that China's 2017 new energy vehicles require 136,000 tons of modified plastics.

In June 2018, Shanghai, China will hold an international automotive materials exhibition, actively responding to the national implementation of automotive lightweighting, encouraging energy-saving and environmental protection policies for new energy replacement, and promoting the integration of automotive materials and accessories upstream and downstream enterprises to promote future cars. The development of a good trading platform. Automobile “lightweight” can achieve energy saving and emission reduction, and at the same time bring about performance improvement such as power, vehicle control stability and NVH (noise, vibration, harshness), which is an inevitable trend and important direction for the development of the automobile industry. Advanced automotive materials such as high-performance plastic parts and composite materials have become important contents. With the advancement of new energy power vehicles and new trends such as the Internet of Vehicles, it is conservatively estimated that the annual compound growth rate of the domestic automotive modified plastics industry will exceed 26% in the next five years, and the new energy vehicle modified plastics are expected to exceed 54.3. 10,000 tons of consumption.

Figure 3: Estimation of consumption of modified plastics for new energy vehicles in China from 2018 to 2023 (unit: 10,000 tons)

The scale of the modified plastics industry will continue to expand

Modified plastics are the material basis for most of the needs of people in all aspects of life. As the material life of the people is increasingly rich, the consumption of materials is increasing. In terms of total volume, the finished products of China's modified plastics industry have increased year by year, but the growth rate has declined. In 2016, the finished product of the industry was 3.836 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.52%. According to estimates, in 2017, the scale of finished products in China's modified plastics industry was about 4.124 billion yuan.

Chart 4: China's modified plastics industry finished products and growth rate chart for 2010-2017 (unit: 10,000 yuan, %)

From 2009 to 2016, China's demand for modified plastics industry continued to grow. Although the growth rate also fluctuated, the growth rate was relatively higher than the total market output. In 2016, the industry achieved sales revenue of 111.298 billion yuan, a compound annual growth rate of 13.18%, which was nearly 6 percentage points higher than supply growth. It is estimated that in 2017, the income of modified plastics reached 125.937 billion yuan.

Chart 5: Trends in sales revenue and growth rate of China's modified plastics industry in 2009-2017 (unit: 100 million yuan, %)

At present, the domestic modified plastics industry started late, the market share is low, the domestic plastic modification rate (10%) is still lower than the international average (20%); the domestic has more than 3,000 modified plastics production enterprises, most The annual output is less than 3,000 tons, and the number of tons is less than 10,000 tons. Most of the enterprises are generally small in scale, lacking in production technology capability and quality assurance capability, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of high-end automobiles. The localization of high-grade automotive special plastics is low. With the light weight of automobiles and the upgrading of household appliances consumption, the future high growth of modified plastics will continue and the development prospects will be very broad. It is estimated that in 2023, the sales scale of China's modified plastics industry is expected to exceed 262.2 billion yuan.

Figure 6: Forecast of sales volume of China's modified plastics market in 2018-2023 (unit: 100 million yuan)