In the first quarter of this year, China's machinery industry production and sales showed a steady growth trend, production and sales growth rate remained above 29%, the industry showed continuous growth in production, good production and sales, market demand continued to grow, import growth increased, import and export trade Reproduce the operational situation of the deficit.
The relevant person in charge of the China Machinery Industry Federation said that due to the high base in the previous year, the growth rate of the machinery industry in the first quarter was not low, indicating that the growth of production and sales of the machinery industry is still good. On this basis, China Mobile has made new predictions on the industry's operating trend throughout the year: It is estimated that the total output value of the machinery industry will exceed 17 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 22% and a profit growth rate of about 25%.
A, data
Production and sales continue to maintain steady growth
From January to March this year, the total industrial output value and sales value of the machinery industry reached 357.878 billion yuan and 3,450.317 billion yuan, an increase of 29.11% and 29.12% respectively. Affected by the high base of the previous year, the growth rate of production and sales dropped by 13.24 and 14.36 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.
From the absolute amount of production and sales in the month, the output value in March was 1.4 trillion yuan, second only to the highest record of production and sales in December 2010 at 1.48 trillion yuan. The sales value of sales was 1.37 trillion yuan, which was second only to the level of 1.46 trillion yuan in December 2010. Continue to continue the level of one-month output value of one trillion yuan in 2010.
From January to March, the production and sales rate of machinery industry products was 97.63%, which was 0.63 percentage points higher than that of January-February, slightly lower than the national industry (97.71%) 0.08 percentage points.
The value-added ratio still ranks first in the industry from January to March, and the value added of the machinery industry in the month and cumulative growth rate is 17.4% and 17.8%, respectively, which is 2.6 and 3.4 percentage points higher than the national industrial level. The added value of the machinery industry still ranks first in the national industrial added value. From January to March, it accounted for 18.65% of the national industry, down 0.7 percentage points over the same period of last year.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment accelerated significantly In the first quarter of this year, China's machinery industry investment growth continued to be higher than the national (excluding farmers) and manufacturing growth. From January to March, the machinery industry completed a total of 391.468 billion yuan in fixed assets investment, an increase of 39.03% over the same period of last year. The growth rate is higher than the monthly growth rate in 2010, which is 9.17 higher than the highest growth rate in January-October (29.86%) in 2010. percentage point. From January to March, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the machinery industry was higher than that of the national (excluding farmers) and manufacturing industries of 14.03 and 9.83 percentage points.
In different regions, the eastern, central and western regions completed fixed assets investment of 248.414 billion yuan, 94.622 billion yuan and 48.702 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.93%, 56.26% and 47.86% respectively. The central and western regions were significantly faster than the eastern region.
The ex-factory price of industrial products rose slightly in March, and the ex-factory price of machinery industry producers rose slightly in the month and cumulative year-on-year, with the increase of 1.4%. From the cumulative price increase in the previous three months, it showed a slight upward trend. The price level of the machinery industry is always lower than the national industrial level, which is lower than the rising price index of all raw materials, fuels and power, and the gap continues to widen in March. In March, the ex-factory price of machinery industry was 5.9 and 5.7 percentage points lower than the national total, which was lower than the national industrial producers' purchase price of 9.1 and 8.8 percentage points, respectively, and increased by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
The growth rate of economic benefits of enterprises fell back from January to February, and the main economic benefit indicators of machinery industrial enterprises maintained steady growth. The above-scale enterprises realized a total profit of 137.395 billion yuan, and the absolute volume continued to increase, up 30.74% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 109.61 percentage points compared with 140.35% in the same period of last year, and the corporate profits generally continued the basic trend of gradual slowdown in the previous year. In the sub-sectors, the decline in the automotive, engineering, civil engineering, and instrumentation industries all exceeded 50%. At the same time, the industry's various cost expenses have also increased rapidly. For example, the main business cost increased by 30.98% year-on-year, the main business tax and surcharge increased by 39.88%, the operating expenses increased by 25.24%, and the management expenses increased by 26.34%. Financial expenses were 27.62%, of which interest expenses increased by 29.58%.
B, operating characteristics
Most industry output value growth is faster
From the perspective of the industry operation characteristics of the first quarter, the growth rate of output value of most industries in the machinery industry has accelerated, especially the construction machinery has achieved rapid growth. In contrast, the growth rate of automobiles and internal combustion engines has dropped sharply.
From the specific data, from January to March, the output value of 13 industries in the machinery industry showed double-digit growth, the fastest growing of which was the construction machinery industry. Based on the growth of 49.15% in the previous year, it continued to grow from January to March this year. 58.64%, an increase of 9.49 percentage points year-on-year. In addition, compared with the growth rate of the same period last year, the petrochemical general machinery industry accelerated by 8.54 percentage points year-on-year, the heavy mining industry accelerated by 8.3 percentage points, the electrical and electronic industry accelerated by 2.73 percentage points, and the food packaging machinery industry accelerated by 3.65 percentage points.
Five of the 13 industries experienced a year-on-year decline in growth, with the automotive and internal combustion engines falling back. The automobile industry's output value in January-March was 18.5% year-on-year, down 51.1 percentage points, slightly slowing down from 62% in January-February. The contribution rate of automobile output to the industry dropped from 45.88% in the same period of last year to 25.67%. The internal combustion engine industry fell by 14 percentage points year-on-year, and the agricultural machinery industry, machine tools, and general-purpose basic parts industries all experienced different degrees of growth.
The output of major products in various industries achieved steady growth. Among the 120 major products in the monthly report of the machinery industry, there were 106 kinds of products, accounting for 88.33% of all reported products; 86 products with double-digit growth, accounting for 86 71.67% of all products were reported; the output of 13 products decreased compared with last year, accounting for 10.83% of the reported products. From the perspective of the sub-industry, the specific situation is as follows:
Agricultural machinery industry: The output of the nine major agricultural machinery products of China National Machinery Association has increased to varying degrees, including grain harvesting machinery (129.92%), corn harvesting machinery, post-harvest processing machinery, agricultural product primary processing machinery, feed production machinery and cotton. Processing machinery maintained rapid growth, and the growth rate was above 44%. Large, medium and small tractors maintained steady growth, and the growth rate remained above 10%. Large tractors grew strongly in the month, up 37.75% year-on-year, faster than medium and small tractors.
Construction machinery industry: The production of major products has been comprehensively improved and the growth has been strong. The five major products of the statistics all increased by more than 40%. In 2010, the monthly output of excavators will be up to 20,000 units. In March this year, the monthly output has reached 27,500 units. The excavators increased by 53.91% and 58.88% respectively in the month and the loader increased by 40.6%; the compaction machinery in the current month and accumulated Growth of 131.27% and 74.54%.
Machine tool industry: the gap between metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools increased, metal cutting machine tools increased by 22.9%, metal forming machine tools increased by 0.32%, other products maintained growth of more than 22%, and machine tool numerical control devices increased by 33.86%. The growth of CNC machine tools is 39.04%, which is much faster than the 22% increase in the total number of machine tools, indicating that the demand for CNC machine tools is much larger than that of ordinary machine tools.
Electrical and electrical industry: From January to March, power generation equipment increased by 44.69%. Among them, the hydroelectric generating unit changed from 21.86% in the first two months to an increase of 7.31%, the turbine generator increased by 53%, and the hydro turbine in the power station increased by 31.27%. The wind turbine continued to achieve on the basis of high growth last year. A 75% increase.
Automobile industry: affected by factors such as the cancellation of preferential policies for automobile consumption, the growth rate of production and sales declined. Judging from the overall market for the whole year, this year's auto market will face the pressure of a sharp drop in growth after high growth. From January to March, the production and sales of automobiles were 4,875,800 and 4,838,800, an increase of 7.48% and 8.08%. The production and sales of basic passenger cars (sedans) were 2.5928 million and 2.62 million, an increase of 8.58% and 9.03%.
Heavy machinery industry: The growth of metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment is still low. From January to March, metal smelting equipment continued to grow negatively, down 9.82%, and metal rolling equipment fell by 4.39%. Mine-specific equipment has grown rapidly, especially bridge-gantry cranes have grown faster, and the production situation of lifting equipment and conveying equipment is better, with year-on-year growth exceeding 20%.
Instrumentation industry: Electrical instrumentation and testing machines grew rapidly, up 32.24% and 38.80% respectively. The production of automobile instrumentation has slowed down markedly, and the growth rate has dropped by more than 95 percentage points over the same period of last year.
C, the problem
Operating costs continue to rise and coexist with high risks
First, operating costs are rising and business operations are more difficult.
According to the relevant person in charge of the China Machine Industry Association, from the perspective of the operation in the first quarter of this year, the development of the machinery industry faces many constraints. First, the rising prices of raw materials, fuel, power and bulk commodities have pushed up the cost of enterprises. Second, the rise in labor prices makes recruitment difficult to become a common problem for industrial enterprises. The competition among talents in the industry has intensified. From competition between regions and regions, to competition between industry and industry, the cost of labor for enterprises has been continuously improved. Third, the central bank continued to raise the deposit reserve ratio and raise interest rates. The cost of capital use of enterprises has increased significantly, the expenditure on financial expenses has increased, and the contractual payment of some enterprises has slowed down. The increase in accounts receivable at the beginning of the year has risen too fast, putting pressure on liquidity. Affected corporate capital turnover. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi has a greater impact on exporting companies. Many factors such as the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the fluctuation of domestic raw material prices have directly affected the international competitiveness of machinery industry enterprises and made it more difficult for export enterprises to operate.
Second, the import of second-hand equipment has soared, the market order is still to be regulated, and the construction machinery industry has high growth and high risks.
Industry experts said that although the impact of the national macroeconomic policy adjustment on the construction machinery industry in the first quarter is not obvious, the whole industry continues to maintain rapid development, but the adjustment of macroeconomic policies will definitely have an impact on the construction machinery market. The current rapid development momentum is not sustainable. Moreover, key problems in the construction machinery industry are prominent, and some small businesses face difficulties or are eliminated. At the same time, the cost of corporate factors continues to rise, product prices continue to rise, and the expected increase in the number of earthquakes in Japan will have an impact on the construction machinery industry. At the same time, the competition order in the construction machinery industry is not standardized, and the phenomenon of improper operation often occurs, including zero down payment, excessive proportion of financial leasing, blind procurement, low threshold for leasing companies, inadequate management of used equipment, and enjoyment of small agricultural construction machinery. Government subsidies disrupt the market.
D, forecast
The annual stable and rapid growth of profit growth rate is about 25%
According to China Mobile, the rapid growth of the machinery industry in 2010 has a strong recovery component, and the machinery industry continued to grow steadily on the basis of the rapid recovery in the first quarter of this year. It is expected that the machinery industry will maintain steady and rapid growth this year, with an annual growth rate of approximately 22%.
The total industrial output value will exceed 17 trillion yuan. In 2010, the total output value of the machinery industry showed a trend of high and low, but it still grew rapidly throughout the year. It is expected that the growth rate in 2011 will be lower than last year, but it will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth. It is estimated that the output value of the machinery industry in the first half of this year will be around 8 trillion yuan, and the growth rate will slightly decline. The annual industrial output value of the machinery industry will exceed 17 trillion yuan, and the growth rate is expected to be around 22%.
The main business returned to a steady growth trend. In 2010, the income from the main business of the machinery industry increased steadily, and the growth rate gradually declined. Unlike the low-speed growth of low and high before 2009 and the high growth of high before and after 2010, the main business income in 2011 is expected to return to stable growth, and may show a slight decline. It is estimated that the main business income from January to May this year will exceed 6 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 26%; from January to November, the main business income will reach 15 trillion yuan, and the cumulative growth rate is expected to be around 24%.
Profits continued to fall back, with a growth rate of about 25% for the whole year. In 2010, the total profit of the machinery industry achieved rapid growth, reaching the best level in history, greatly exceeding expectations. However, due to factors such as the continuous improvement of the previous year's base, the profit growth showed a rapid decline. It is expected that the trend will continue to decline in 2011. In addition to the factors of high base factor in the previous year, the purchase price of raw materials, fuels and power continues to rise, the labor cost rises, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and the increase in operating costs will continue to reduce the profit margin of the industry. However, it is expected that the profit growth rate will gradually stabilize in the second quarter. It is estimated that the profit growth rate will be about 27% from January to May; the cumulative growth rate of profits from January to November will be around 25%.
E, link
In the first quarter, the added value of the equipment industry increased by 17.8%.
According to the industrial operation data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in the first quarter, in the first quarter of this year, the added value of China's equipment industry increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate falling by 7.9 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage point lower than the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, general-purpose and special equipment increased by 21.8% and 24.4% respectively, instrumentation and cultural office equipment and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 17.6% and 17.7% respectively, and transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 14.1%. In the first two months, the machinery industry realized a profit of 139 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, of which the automobile industry realized a profit of 56.6 billion yuan, an increase of 16.7%; the loss of enterprises was 16.5%, and the loss of loss-making enterprises was 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%.
Equipment industry exports maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the equipment industry achieved an export delivery value of 375.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. The growth rate was flat with the same period last year, down 2.1 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, the export of mechanical and electrical products was 232 billion US dollars, an increase of 22.8%. Among the main products, in the first quarter, imported cars reached 236,000, an increase of 31.8% year-on-year; the export of automobiles was 159,000, an increase of 56.3%. Imported auto parts were US$5.23 billion, up 23.3%, and export auto parts were US$4.34 billion, up 27.3%. The imported compression ignition piston internal combustion engine was 1.59 billion US dollars, an increase of 45.2%. Exports of 2.57 million motorcycles, an increase of 13.3%; exports of tractors and tractors of 48,600 units, an increase of 90.3%.
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