At that time, global production capacity will increase substantially. The supply pattern will go from monopoly to diversified Chinese steel companies that have been suppressed by the world's three major iron ore giants for many years. It is expected to “turn over†in the next four years and completely break the monopoly of the world's major iron ore markets. situation. This is the public assertion of Wu Rongqing, chief engineer of the Industry Development Department of China Mining Association, at the 2011 China Iron Ore Conference. He said that Chinese companies will increase the production capacity of their rights and mines from the current 90 million tons to 200 million tons. The domestic production of mines is expected to reach 1.5 billion tons in 2015, and the demand will not exceed 1.32 billion tons. However, Luiz Meriz, president of Brazil's Vale Company in China, believes that global iron ore supply will continue to be tight in the next few years. The production capacity will greatly increase the surge in production capacity of China and the world in the next few years, which is an important support for Chinese steel companies to win this “turning overâ€. Since 2003, due to the rapid growth of global steel production capacity, the price of tightly supplied iron ore has risen sharply, and mining companies have thus obtained huge profits, attracting a large amount of global funds to enter the field. Many companies, including steel companies, have also invested in a number of mines in recent years. A management team of Baosteel Group had previously accepted an interview with China Business News. According to the interview of China Business News, from 2013 to 2014, the production capacity of mines including the expansion of old mines in recent years will be released on a large scale, and oversupply may occur. The phenomenon. Wu Rongqing provided detailed data to support his argument. Since 2003, a large amount of funds have entered the iron ore industry, and a large number of expansion and new projects will soon release production capacity. At the same time, Western Australia, the main iron ore production area, will have a production capacity of 940 million tons in 2015, which is expected in 2020. It is as high as 1.16 billion tons, and the current output is only 410 million tons. Luiz Meriz also gave the forecast for capacity growth in Vale: the company's iron ore and pellet production capacity in 2015 was 522 million tons, while the current capacity is 322 million tons. At the same time, as the most important importer of iron ore in the world, Chinese enterprises have recently “goed out†to sign and develop projects. Wu Rongqing is expected to be released around 2011~2012 and at the latest in 2014. Capacity, the production capacity of the acquired equity mine will increase from the current 90 million tons to 200 million tons. Domestic mine production will also increase significantly. By the end of 2010, China's raw ore production capacity will be 1.2 billion tons/year. By 2015, domestic mine production is expected to reach 1.5 billion tons, and the demand will not exceed 1.32 billion tons. The dependence on the import of foreign mines will fall back to around 42%. The supply pattern is diversified. As the three giants unilaterally tore up long-term supply contracts with Chinese steel companies, other emerging suppliers will replace them. Wu Rongqing said that the shadow of international resources monopolization in China's steel industry will be broken. With the transformation of supply pattern from monopoly to diversification and demand pattern from decentralization to concentration, Chinese steel enterprises will continue to pursue procurement models based on long-term agreement prices. Luiz Meriz's judgment that supply will remain tight in the next few years does not provide data support. He told this newspaper that there will be no major projects in operation in the next few years. In addition, India's iron ore exports will continue to decrease. It is estimated that India's iron ore exports will decrease by 55 million tons in 2011. Another smaller foreign mine agrees with Luiz Meriz. Ma Jiayu, executive director and chief executive officer of Tiejiang Spot (01209.HK), a Russian iron ore producer listed in Hong Kong last year, told this newspaper: "Unlike market expectations, we are not so good at the market's supply capacity at that time. Optimistic.†In Ma Jiayu's view, most of the current iron ore investment is mainly concentrated in Australia, Africa and other regions, and these areas are very far away from China, and the transportation cost is very high. Moreover, most of the African mines need to be based. The construction of facilities, the construction of terminals and railways is not something that a steel company can do. However, an official in Western Australia who is in the same interest as the mine does not agree with the above opinions of the mining company. The official previously told this newspaper that it is expected that Australia's iron ore production will be greater than market demand around 2012. Wu Rongqing believes that many factors indicate that the supply and demand relationship of the international iron ore market from 2013 to 2014 will be developed from the current “tight supply†to “supply exceeds demandâ€.
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