The energy issue is a global and strategic issue that affects economic and social development. From a global perspective, the energy system led by fossil energy after two energy transformations has greatly promoted the development of human society and promoted the transition of human civilization from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization. However, with the sharp increase in energy consumption, the problems of global climate change and regional environmental pollution brought about by the large-scale utilization of fossil energy have become increasingly prominent. In this context, promoting a new round of energy transformation and building a sustainable energy system is becoming a worldwide trend.
At present, countries all over the world are vigorously promoting energy transformation, and have generally set targets for substantially improving energy efficiency and utilization of renewable energy. For example, the EU proposes to increase energy efficiency by 20% by 2020, and increase the proportion of renewable energy utilization to 20%, by 2050, renewable energy will account for 75% of total primary energy consumption, accounting for 97% of electricity consumption; Germany proposes that total energy consumption by 2050 will be reduced by 50% compared with 1990, of which construction sector The total energy consumption is 80% lower than that of 1990. The proportion of renewable energy in primary energy consumption has increased to 60%, accounting for 80% of electricity consumption. Danish research institutes have proposed to use non-fossils by 2050. Energy to achieve complete decarbonization.
The energy and environmental problems facing China are very prominent, resource constraints are tightening, the ecological environment is deteriorating, and energy transformation is imminent. In 2012, the party’s 18th National Congress report clearly stated that it should promote the energy production and consumption revolution. In June 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping further refined the energy revolution into “four revolutions†and “one cooperation†at the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, which pointed out the direction for China's energy transformation path.
After reviewing the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to develop at a high speed. Correspondingly, the total energy consumption has also grown rapidly, and it has been characterized by “large total, low per capita, coal-based, and low efficiencyâ€. According to statistics, the increase in energy consumption in China in the first decade of the 21st century is more than twice that of the past 20 years, but the per capita energy consumption is less than half that of the OECD countries. At the same time, coal is the biggest problem in China's energy sector. Limited by resource endowment, China's energy consumption structure is inversely related to global energy consumption structure. In many countries, oil and gas consumption is close to 70%, while China's coal consumption accounts for more than 60%, which is also an important cause of haze weather.
In the future, China will achieve the established development goal of building a well-off society in 2020 and reaching the level of moderately developed countries in 2050. The rigid growth of energy demand will remain difficult to change. According to the per capita energy consumption level of OECD countries, China's annual energy demand will be close to 9 billion tons of standard coal, even if the per capita energy consumption level of Japan and Germany, which is the most energy-efficient in the world, is close to 8 billion tons of standard coal. However, neither of these scenarios can happen because resources are not guaranteed and the environment has no capacity. To achieve sustainable economic development in the future, we must reshape energy production and consumption patterns, promote energy transformation, and control total energy consumption. Significantly reduce coal demand and reduce pollutants and carbon dioxide sources from the source.
From the medium and long-term development goals, the 100th anniversary of the founding of New China in 2050 is also the node for achieving national rejuvenation. At that time, if the total energy consumption has doubled to 6.5 billion tons of standard coal in 2010, even in this scenario, even if the energy consumption structure of coal, oil and gas and non-fossil energy is formed, the total energy consumption of fossil energy will be The amount will still be as high as 4 billion tons of standard coal. Compared with the current situation, the emission sources and carbon dioxide emissions of pollutants may increase and the environmental conditions will be difficult to change, but the per capita energy consumption of this scenario is higher than that of OECD countries. 40% lower. The ideal situation is to control the total energy consumption within 5 billion tons of standard coal, and significantly increase the proportion of renewable energy, in order to fundamentally reduce pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions, and completely return to the clear blue sky. However, the challenge is to achieve the current level of economic and social development in OECD countries, and per capita energy consumption is 80% lower than the average level of OECD countries, and 55% lower than Japan with the highest energy efficiency. It can be seen that the challenge of achieving this goal is unprecedented.
Reshaping energy and transforming energy production and consumption systems cannot be accomplished in one stroke and one stroke, and must be promoted in a comprehensive and systematic manner. First, in the development model, we must change the growth mode while improving the quality of economic growth and reducing periodic waste. Second, in the supply model, we must gradually increase the supply of low-carbon and non-fossil energy sources with high efficiency, clean, low-carbon, environmentally-friendly, continuous regeneration, and sustainable use, and reduce the dependence of economic development on high-carbon energy. Third, in the production mode, through the integration of design, change concept, "Internet +" and other means, the energy efficiency is greatly improved, and the demand for terminal energy is reduced. Fourth, in the mode of life, encourage and guide the green consumption and low-carbon consumption of all sectors of society to reduce the demand for energy. With a cleaner and more sustainable energy system, we will help realize the "Chinese dream" of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
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