In 2009, the growth rate of China's machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will adjust, but the industry will still maintain a certain growth rate.
The National Information Center released the 63rd "Economic Forecasting Analysis" on December 26, which pointed out that since 2008, the growth rate of industrial output value of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has steadily increased, but the growth rate of energy and raw materials has been faster, and the growth rate of production has slowed down. The profit growth rate of the machinery and equipment industry has been adjusted. In 2009, the domestic and international economic environment will undergo major changes, and the growth rate of the output value of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will be adjusted. However, the increase in technological upgrading requirements, the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of the country’s policy of expanding domestic demand will promote the manufacture of machinery and equipment. In the long-term development of the industry, the overall machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will maintain a certain growth rate. The future development of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is as follows:
1. The mechanical equipment manufacturing industry has huge room for development. In the long term, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading will be the main line of China's national economic development. Product structure adjustment, improvement of production technology, technical transformation of equipment and equipment, automation and development of large-scale equipment, etc. Both need the machinery and equipment industry to provide advanced and modern products. The national economic sustainable development strategy puts the use of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly production equipment as the focus of investment, and also requires the mechanical equipment industry to provide safer and more advanced products. In many industries such as power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials, etc., more efficient, automated and clean production equipment is needed in the construction of new projects to improve the technological content and added value of products. Mechanical products with characteristics such as energy saving, low pollution, intelligence, and complete sets will gradually become the mainstream of the market. In addition, in the transportation industry such as roads and transportation, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products will be greatly improved in promoting structural adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading. At the same time, the machinery industry itself requires industrial upgrading and technological transformation, as well as a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing equipment. The market competition is intensifying and the speed of enterprise technology upgrading is accelerating. The investment in technological transformation of enterprises will maintain a certain scale. At the same time, the national policy also encourages enterprises to increase the investment intensity of new equipment, and the demand for high-precision mechanical equipment products will continue to increase. Therefore, the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the national economy will have a greater demand for the machinery and equipment industry in a long period of time.
2. The rising trend of energy and raw material prices will slow down, and the industry's cost pressure will be reduced. In 2008, the price of energy and raw materials rose rapidly, which caused certain cost pressures on the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth of the economic benefits of the industry. However, the domestic economic growth has slowed down. Due to the spread of the US financial crisis, the world economy has also slowed down markedly. The growth rate of demand for energy raw materials has slowed down, and prices have fallen from high levels. At present, crude oil prices in the international market have fallen sharply from high levels, and prices of steel and non-ferrous metals have also fallen. Due to the pessimistic forecast of future world economic growth, the prices of energy raw materials will be difficult to rise again, and the cost pressure on future machinery and equipment manufacturing. It will be alleviated, which will help the industry maintain a certain profit growth.
As a relatively high-tech industry, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a strong ability to withstand rising energy and raw materials prices. Although the profit growth rate has dropped significantly since 2008, it has maintained a good level of economic benefits. The long-term growth rate and profitability of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will depend more on the added value level of products and the speed of technological progress, which is an important basis for the sustainable development of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry.
3. Agricultural policies provide new market opportunities for agricultural equipment. In the past two years, there has been a new hot spot in the demand for mechanical products, and the demand for agricultural machinery has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. With the implementation of various preferential policies for agriculture, especially the increase in subsidies for agricultural materials, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase agricultural machinery has been enhanced, which has effectively promoted the sustainable development of agricultural machinery. After the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the state once again increased the subsidies for agricultural production materials, and at the same time liberalized the transfer of rural land use rights, encouraged the concentration of land to large-scale farming, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the growth of demand for agricultural production machinery. . After years of hard work, the state has accelerated the transformation of rural power grids. The improvement of rural electricity consumption has greatly promoted farmers' demand for small-scale agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made agricultural machinery develop rapidly. In the future, the adjustment of agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and the level of mechanization and modernization of agricultural production will continue to increase. This process will require higher and newer demand for agricultural machinery and equipment. With the deepening of rural economic system reform and the deepening of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the production, storage, processing, transportation and other aspects of agricultural products need to continuously improve the level of mechanization. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture, water-saving irrigation agriculture, etc. will China's economically developed regions are accelerating their growth, and the requirements for equipment will be further improved.
4. Exports of machinery products continued to grow. As a big country in the machinery industry, some mechanical products with comparative advantages in China still have great export potential. For example, small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium-power engineering machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products are all larger internationally. market. In particular, China has intensified the implementation of the “going out strategyâ€, encouraged enterprises to develop foreign engineering contracting and cooperation, and made great progress in the development of economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a greater impact on world economic growth, developed countries are facing economic recession, but the export market of China's machinery products is largely a developing country and an emerging country. Their economies still have great development potential. The demand for mechanical products in China will still maintain a certain growth.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the strategy of developing the western region will drive demand for machinery products to grow. With the steady development of the western development plan, the West-East Power Transmission Project and the West-East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment, and have driven the growth of a large number of general-purpose machinery; the western key roads, railways, buildings, The construction of infrastructure projects such as water conservancy, electric power and airports has provided new development opportunities for the construction of engineering construction machinery and related professional equipment. In particular, in response to the impact of the global economic downturn on the domestic economy, the state will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce a cumulative investment plan of 4 trillion yuan, which will effectively boost domestic demand growth.
For a long period of time in the future, the demand for mechanical equipment will grow steadily, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The overcapacity of general products will be more serious, and the demand for high-precision products, technological modern products and new-field products will continue to rise.
The National Information Center released the 63rd "Economic Forecasting Analysis" on December 26, which pointed out that since 2008, the growth rate of industrial output value of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has steadily increased, but the growth rate of energy and raw materials has been faster, and the growth rate of production has slowed down. The profit growth rate of the machinery and equipment industry has been adjusted. In 2009, the domestic and international economic environment will undergo major changes, and the growth rate of the output value of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will be adjusted. However, the increase in technological upgrading requirements, the acceleration of urbanization and the expansion of the country’s policy of expanding domestic demand will promote the manufacture of machinery and equipment. In the long-term development of the industry, the overall machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will maintain a certain growth rate. The future development of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is as follows:
1. The mechanical equipment manufacturing industry has huge room for development. In the long term, industrial restructuring and technological upgrading will be the main line of China's national economic development. Product structure adjustment, improvement of production technology, technical transformation of equipment and equipment, automation and development of large-scale equipment, etc. Both need the machinery and equipment industry to provide advanced and modern products. The national economic sustainable development strategy puts the use of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly production equipment as the focus of investment, and also requires the mechanical equipment industry to provide safer and more advanced products. In many industries such as power, petrochemical, metallurgy, coal, textile, light industry, building materials, etc., more efficient, automated and clean production equipment is needed in the construction of new projects to improve the technological content and added value of products. Mechanical products with characteristics such as energy saving, low pollution, intelligence, and complete sets will gradually become the mainstream of the market. In addition, in the transportation industry such as roads and transportation, the demand for the variety, level, quality and performance of mechanical products will be greatly improved in promoting structural adjustment and promoting industrial upgrading. At the same time, the machinery industry itself requires industrial upgrading and technological transformation, as well as a large number of advanced processing equipment and testing equipment. The market competition is intensifying and the speed of enterprise technology upgrading is accelerating. The investment in technological transformation of enterprises will maintain a certain scale. At the same time, the national policy also encourages enterprises to increase the investment intensity of new equipment, and the demand for high-precision mechanical equipment products will continue to increase. Therefore, the structural adjustment and industrial upgrading of the national economy will have a greater demand for the machinery and equipment industry in a long period of time.
2. The rising trend of energy and raw material prices will slow down, and the industry's cost pressure will be reduced. In 2008, the price of energy and raw materials rose rapidly, which caused certain cost pressures on the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry and affected the growth of the economic benefits of the industry. However, the domestic economic growth has slowed down. Due to the spread of the US financial crisis, the world economy has also slowed down markedly. The growth rate of demand for energy raw materials has slowed down, and prices have fallen from high levels. At present, crude oil prices in the international market have fallen sharply from high levels, and prices of steel and non-ferrous metals have also fallen. Due to the pessimistic forecast of future world economic growth, the prices of energy raw materials will be difficult to rise again, and the cost pressure on future machinery and equipment manufacturing. It will be alleviated, which will help the industry maintain a certain profit growth.
As a relatively high-tech industry, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a strong ability to withstand rising energy and raw materials prices. Although the profit growth rate has dropped significantly since 2008, it has maintained a good level of economic benefits. The long-term growth rate and profitability of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry will depend more on the added value level of products and the speed of technological progress, which is an important basis for the sustainable development of the mechanical equipment manufacturing industry.
3. Agricultural policies provide new market opportunities for agricultural equipment. In the past two years, there has been a new hot spot in the demand for mechanical products, and the demand for agricultural machinery has maintained a relatively fast growth rate. With the implementation of various preferential policies for agriculture, especially the increase in subsidies for agricultural materials, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase agricultural machinery has been enhanced, which has effectively promoted the sustainable development of agricultural machinery. After the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, the state once again increased the subsidies for agricultural production materials, and at the same time liberalized the transfer of rural land use rights, encouraged the concentration of land to large-scale farming, and developed economies of scale, which will effectively promote the growth of demand for agricultural production machinery. . After years of hard work, the state has accelerated the transformation of rural power grids. The improvement of rural electricity consumption has greatly promoted farmers' demand for small-scale agricultural machinery and irrigation equipment, improved the use conditions of agricultural machinery, and made agricultural machinery develop rapidly. In the future, the adjustment of agricultural and rural economic structure will continue to increase, and the level of mechanization and modernization of agricultural production will continue to increase. This process will require higher and newer demand for agricultural machinery and equipment. With the deepening of rural economic system reform and the deepening of marketization in the field of agricultural product circulation, the production, storage, processing, transportation and other aspects of agricultural products need to continuously improve the level of mechanization. At the same time, facility agriculture, green agriculture, water-saving irrigation agriculture, etc. will China's economically developed regions are accelerating their growth, and the requirements for equipment will be further improved.
4. Exports of machinery products continued to grow. As a big country in the machinery industry, some mechanical products with comparative advantages in China still have great export potential. For example, small and medium-sized agricultural machinery, medium-power engineering machinery, ordinary machine tools, mid-range scientific testing instruments, optical instruments and other products are all larger internationally. market. In particular, China has intensified the implementation of the “going out strategyâ€, encouraged enterprises to develop foreign engineering contracting and cooperation, and made great progress in the development of economic and technological cooperation projects. These advances will greatly promote the export of related machinery products. Although the spread of the US financial crisis will have a greater impact on world economic growth, developed countries are facing economic recession, but the export market of China's machinery products is largely a developing country and an emerging country. Their economies still have great development potential. The demand for mechanical products in China will still maintain a certain growth.
5. Expanding domestic demand and implementing the strategy of developing the western region will drive demand for machinery products to grow. With the steady development of the western development plan, the West-East Power Transmission Project and the West-East Gas Transmission Project have greatly promoted the development of power generation equipment and power transmission and transformation equipment, and have driven the growth of a large number of general-purpose machinery; the western key roads, railways, buildings, The construction of infrastructure projects such as water conservancy, electric power and airports has provided new development opportunities for the construction of engineering construction machinery and related professional equipment. In particular, in response to the impact of the global economic downturn on the domestic economy, the state will increase investment in infrastructure and introduce a cumulative investment plan of 4 trillion yuan, which will effectively boost domestic demand growth.
For a long period of time in the future, the demand for mechanical equipment will grow steadily, but the demand structure will continue to adjust and change. The overcapacity of general products will be more serious, and the demand for high-precision products, technological modern products and new-field products will continue to rise.
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