Water Reducing Agent Market Warmer

In early September, domestic water-reducing agent series products were affected by negative factors such as weaker raw materials, persistent rainy weather, and tight downstream funds, setting a new low this year. Among them, the mainstream of high-efficiency and low-concentration water reducer quotes about 4,000 yuan (t price, the same below), the mainstream of high-efficient high-concentration water reducer quoted at 5,800 yuan, 40% liquid solid content quoted 1,800 yuan. Starting in mid-September, due to favorable factors such as the rebound of raw materials, better weather, and declining production, some regions began to adjust prices to varying degrees, and the range of increase in series products ranged from 3% to 5%, and the market was beginning to recover. However, based on the current slow recovery of downstream demand and the fact that the downstream capital tensions cannot be improved for the time being, it is expected that the market will focus on recovering the mild shocks and rebounds at the bottom.

——Increase in raw materials and promote passive price increase by enterprises In mid-September, industrial naphthalene was used as the main raw material for naphthalene-based water reducers and continued to increase, rising from 6,200 yuan at the beginning of the month to 6,800 yuan at the end of the month, and the high end exceeding 7,000 yuan. More than 9%, there are also shortages in some regions. In addition, caustic soda has also seen a significant increase, especially in Zhejiang, where water-reducing agent production is a major province, and the increase in caustic soda is more than in other regions. Although the price of ** has dropped slightly at present, but the consolidation pattern after the continuous increase, the price is still high, and there is little possibility of a substantial reduction in the short term. For superplasticizer manufacturers, the high cost pressures are increasing day by day, and companies have started to increase prices passively.

——Reduced supply due to rainy weather At the beginning of September, heavy rains occurred in most parts of the country, and the Yangtze River and Yellow River basins faced the fall and flood season. Many water-reducing agent manufacturers reduced their production. At the same time, traders also reduced the commercial inventory of water reducers due to negative expectations for the entire construction industry. After prices hit a new low this year at the beginning of September, the feedback from the frontline of the market indicates that the volume of transactions has shrunk simultaneously and it is expected that the availability of the market will decrease by more than 10% from August. In addition, the rainy weather gradually improved, the operating rate of the downstream mixing stations increased, the purchase demand increased, the negative atmosphere eased, and the willingness to make up the bank increased, which constituted the main favorable factor for the warming up of the temperature in the late period.

- Expected increase in potential growth It is understood that the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing projects that the country is expected to build this year is gradually progressing. Although the “restricted purchase order” and “limit order” gradually affected the second and third tier cities, the entire building materials market suffered negative pressure, but the amount of civil or industrial construction projects under construction was still large, and the unfinished buildings were delayed due to the delay of the construction period. From October to November, there will be a concentrated start-up period, and the potential demand for water reducer will have a short-term rapid growth expectation, which will inevitably lead to a wave of rebound and warming up the market. This is also one of the reasons why some traders have increased their reserve volume recently. .

——Technical rebound may lag behind This year, the traditional peak season for demand of gold, ninety silver and ten is affected by factors such as weather, macroeconomic policies, and liquidity of enterprises, and the busy season is not prosperous. According to the analysis of the technical curves in 2009 and 2010, the market of the water reducing agent in September and November is a strong curve, and the volume and price are well matched. However, due to factors such as the country’s suppression of the real estate market, the control of liquidity policies, and weakening of the international economic environment this year, coupled with factors such as power shortages and rainy seasons in the southern China, the market for water reducing agents is vulnerable to the expected increase in potential demand. The game began to play positively. From a technical perspective, the short-term rebound is only a technical repair bottom. The rebound in the midline is expected to lag behind. In October, the market is still repeated. It is not ruled out that the rebound cycle may be shortened and the oscillation cycle may be extended.